Statistics Canada Seeding Intentions Report

[charliep]

The above report is at the above internet address.

http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/020424/d020424b.htm

The only surprises are peas and durum(lower than expected). Barley and oat acres should raise an alert on potential production (tight supplies this year to lots next). Wheat ex durum, canola and flaxseed as expected.

Thoughts. Survey done Apr. 1 plus/minus. Have people changed ideas over past three weeks.

[rain]

Charlie do you know how many people Stats can uses in there survey?

[rain]

Charlie what is your feeling about what is to be seeded, with current moisture conditions as they are. do you think wheat acres will be down, and canola up?

[charliep]

Sample size was 12,200. Response rate was over 80 % (10,000 for nice round numbers). Dates of survey were Mar. 23 to 31.

[charliep]

I will leave for discussion. About 50 % of the prairies is okay for moisture (ranging from good to enough to get the crop started). 50 % of the prairies is still extremely dry.

[charliep]

No takers so I may as well throw in two cents on changes for intentions report.

My thoughts are barley/oats will come down from intentions with wheat (inc. durum) and canola both up. Will vary by region however. Northern Alberta will likely see some increase in wheat and canola. As long as it stays cool/seeding deadlines get pushed, this will solidify barley acres.

Central Alberta - more wheat with push to CPS if get warm weather early May. Barley if season gets late. Maybe a little more canola.

Drought areas AB./Sk.- Early seeding/low moisture. Bigger push to wheat/durum. Reasons - most drought tolerant, crop insurance, potentially interesting market based on tight supplies.

Interesting idea - Realizing that everyone faces different situations re: agronomics/weather/profitability, this is a year I would push CPS wheat into rotation versus barley (particularly if in an area that doesn't get malt) - reason keep alternatives to go to milling wheat and feed markets open.

[ckd129]

Just curios how many of the barley and oats acres are intended for green feed? Personally, we are putting more acres of oats in but that is because we are only able to send a fraction of the cows to pasture with it being so dry.

I am also a little skeptical on yield forecasts. I guess we will see if Env.Canada is right with their prediction of above average rainfall.

Is canola going to rally very much to encourage seeding?

[rain]

The way barley is getting pummeled right now canola does not need to buy acres.

Point of Interest New Crop #1CPSR Wheat flat priced $172.95 less about 40.00 for freight and handling etc $132.95. $3.61/bushel. Here is a good place to start some wheat sales maybe.

[charliep]

Feedgrains are a real wild card right now. I agree that harvested oat and barley acres will be lower than normal but maybe not as much as last year. Feed grains are going to be interesting with anyone who cares to forecast either being super right or ugly wrong.

The problem with canola isn't tight supplies - its cheap soybean oil prices. Customers like canola/canola oil but their preference only goes so far before they shift their consumption to other oils.

[charliep]

Any fine tuning that needs to be done on acreages. In central/northern, we are going to hit the first of May without having turned a wheel. Will acreages start to shift with a later spring or will they stay the same under the assumption warmer weather will push crop maturity this summer?