Farming in the future, where will we be in 10 -15 years?

[theplowboy]

What do you think farming will look like in another 10-15 years? Do you think there will be any smaller guys left? I think it will be hard for small guys to compete with the large operations. Just wondering what everyone else thinks might happen.

[bucket]

This has all been done before. Big shots come in overpay for land and then mother nature drops a perfect production year into the mix and prices hit the shitter and a bunch of land is for sale for 1/2 price. The bigger they are, the harder they fall.

Unfortunately, alot of them get their loans wrote down secretly and never end up paying much for the land if they weather it, meanwhile the small guy gets shit on because he could have paid what the hotdog actually ended up paying.

They sad part is the small farmer who weathered the storm is at the age where they don't want a bunch of debt and its easier to sell or rent it out.

If there is a bunch of young guys starting out, I think the industry will be ok. But they have to compete with joe ****head that inheritted a bunch of money and enjoys having no neighbors.

[freewheat]

Ahh from agtalk, eh?

I see no reason why bigger is better, or
more efficient, or lower cost. It is a
choice that farmers are getting bigger
and fewer, not necessity. As guys quit
land comes for sale and rent, and guys
grab it because they want it or think
they "need" it, not because they have to
have it.

I see no reason why someone can't farn
2000 acres and do a good job, and manage
through good times and bad, vs. those
who "need" to farm the entire world. lol

[freewheat]

What is the competition, btw? Competing
for land? What?

[hobbyfrmr]

I agree with both plow boy and bucket. Farms will
get bigger and become more tolerant with
borrowed money. If it goes wrong the big farms
are more business savvy, like in the past they
refinance for much less than they originally
agreed to and signed for and the beat goes on!
Some of these guys become farmer of the year,
then sell the farm to advance careers on a board
of directors with all the alignments they made in
the ag industry. Kind of a sweet gig really. I am
quite jealous of the whole thing in a twisted kind of
way!

[joedales]

Hi Freewheat,

Can you fire me an email, I have a message for you.

Thanks,

Joe Dales
joe.dales@farms.com
877 438-5729 x5013

[Hopperbin]

Hobby refinancing used to be an option when no one else would take on your debt, today its called bank takes over as you have more collateral than on the farm than years past. Yes today we have investors with money, not debt.
Its is not entirely wrong to have your land rented instead of purchased. It is the day and age. In a way I think investments are for the future or our retirement. Our job is another thing, can be another thing. Sure we can invest in ourselves, live on nothing for all our lives and then die.
Just trying to raise a point.

[malleefarmer]

wont we be feeding more people in the world with expected population growth not alot more land can be opened up except for russian and all its old states it really is untapped, have a friend in germany who averages around 100 to 120 bushels of wheat and his costs are huge, he is a seed grower,they are thinking of relocationg to ukraine.
Maybe more drought tolerant crops so drier areas can be farmed,maybe more precision stuff.
Nothing will change with farm big may get bigger still be plenty of smallers farms as well, maybe more corporate farms which is just starting in oz but not my cup of tea.
Myself im average size farmer i reckon but if i get 3 boys home maybe then would look at expanding but guess fact is i should be doing it now on the premise they will come home rather than wait and not be able toa fford to do it.
Cotton sure has thoughts but would expect a sustained upside once the dogs vomit they call the EU gets fixed

[Burbert]

Framing never changes. A man wit a
crooked stick, plopping seed inta the
ground and hopin fer the best. THAT IS
REALITY. The shape and size of the stick
changes, butt nothing else does........

[burnt]

The development of the Guinea Savannah in Africa is an area worth watching. China, India and other major populations and, accordingly, major food importers are hard at work there.

It could have a major impact on agricultural commodities within 10 -15 years as Asia sources its food needs closer to home and at a much lower cost.

"400 million hectares of Guinea Savannah land ripe for commercial farming" (That's a billion acres!)

http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/20964/icode/

The map in the link below gives perspective to the stunning vastness of this belt of arable, but largely undeveloped land.

http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/20987/icode/

A recent article (which, unfortunately, I cannot find again) told how private interests in "hungry" East Asian countries are making agreements with the governments of the poorer, under-developed African countries for the use of their land.

In some cases, the Asian party gets to use the land at no charge for up to 6 years in return for "developing" its potential.

Then, they are requires to pay rent at the "outrageous" sum of $6 per hectare for these blocks of highly productive land that may be up to 20,000 acres in one piece.(Colonialism is alive and well!)

The land currently supports nomadic herdsman and very small farmers who grow indigenous crops to feed themselves and sell their surplus to meet local needs.

These herdsmen and farmers are simply driven off their land as the new tenants procure the rights to that land.

The result is that hunger in Asia is lessened while the native Africans face starvation as their land and livelihood is displaced by foreign interests.

Don't worry, the world WILL be fed.

Lots of interesting reading comes up when you google the topic.

[hedgehog]

once the africans turn on the asians and start pissing in their fuel tanks at night, the asians will retreat and leave their capital behind, and the jungle will return. seen it all before.
famine is coming.

[seabass]

I agree hedgehog. How many black dictators in that area are just waiting to run them off. Look what happened in Zimbabwe. No white farmers left there. Great farming area but no political safety.

[norton17]

Noone even bids on land around here except big farms.

The 1000-2000 acre guys are biding their time to retirement, and the 10,000 acre guys are aiming for 20,000.

there is no guy starting from 160, trying to get to 1000-2000

Be happy that big farms are around, or there may be no farms around

[theplowboy]

Thanks guys, some good comments.
But how big is too big to manage well?
What is the right size for a single guy and family to make a decent living off?

[seabass]

Depends on your wants, needs,family size, level of satisfaction,etc. But I think u can run a 2500 acre operation with good equipment and have time for your family.