CWB BUY BACKS

[oneoff]

It is mere speculation to claim that the CWB rations sales to the US to keep prices up. It is also utter BSclaim that there would be a "flood" of grain to the US if farmers were not forced to pay exhorbitant buyback fees. If that were true then the US prices are obviously higher than the CWB receives; and surely there has been enough propaganda to prove to every farmer that the CWB receives premium prices.
Nope; its like a CWB employee back in 2008 told me that sales were made by asking for 50 cents more than what the last sale was made. I seriously doubt that anyone realized that during the few times prices of grain are exploding; that it leaves dollars on the table when buyers snatch up as much scare available supply for a few pennies more than the last sale.
If anything, the CWB has probably operated on the basic assumption that "giving" away grain in great demand will pay off forever with customers that will only deal with the CWB in the future.
And that is why the poorest possible result of marketing a fraction of YOUR grain, in equal portions throughout the year would produce at least as great a return as the CWB ever has produced.
The only reason the CWB exists is because this organization has used its single desk powers to preseve its monopoly (seed grower, "organic" production and domestic feed sales excepted; but only in the designated area).
And lets wait for Jan. 18 and following for possible further suprizes.

[Braveheart]

It was not my speculation on how the CWB handled/handles durum. It was a former employee from the durum sales desk that shared the policy. Makes sense to me.

But, if there were no cost buybacks and there is a lot of durum on Can farms, it wouldn't take long for the trade to start picking it up and sending it south. They wouldn't send it to country elevators though, the end user certs would be too onerous. They would more likely put trains down there. Would it be a flood? Well, with the amount not picked up by the board, maybe a swollen stream but I think it could affect prices.

[Kodiak]

If a no cost buyback were to be attached to the grain and transferrable with ownership of the grain, I do not think it would affect nothern tier prices at all. Canadian based Grain companies would buy the grain and market it as they do any other commodity. Why wouldn't prices between the US and Canada equalize instantly, with the grain then finding its way to the highest net back end use location? I agree with Bill, we could have a temporary glut of wheat on the market come August 1 if we fail to transition smoothly. Whether I have an A contract or not, it should matter little. Each of us had the same opportunity to sign an A contract or not. We all had the same information.

[mbratrud]

This really pisses me off, that guys are stupid enough to have held Wheat and Durum waiting for Aug 1 and expect a good outcome knowing what we knew about the markets 3 months ago. Saying this as a free marketer, you boys have a lot of learning to do if you are not going to get burned in this environment. Lesson #1 you are responsible for your desicisons and nobody is going to fix them for you. Play by the rules!

[TOM4CWB]

Normally for commercial wheat growers... a valid call on a valid CWB quota (A Series for instance) is required to do a 'buyback' at cost or no-cost. Seed is different... and CWB policy has different rules for organic grain... so far.

I don't see this as any problem... because the new CWB can throttle back sales if there is a problem.

If there is no problem... why not?

[blackpowder]

mbratrud: Wow, I agree but I was trying to be politically correct. If you had enuf cash to park inventory for a year in a market falling from contract highs, no sympathy.
TOM4CWB: Minister Ritz had to come to an agreement with all players in the industry, public and private, nationally and internationaly.
Wheat not on a CWB contract before Aug 1 2012 was never on the table!
The debate on this issue isn't even constructive!
Our industry needs to turn the page!!

[bucket]

The cwb is allowing you out of a durum contract for nothing. I didn't make the rules the cwb did. Last year it was a 132 bucks a tonne to get out.

If you take the current cash prices for durum come August1, 2012 for grain you pulled out of the A series, you get faster for that grain. Otherwise you are waiting for december 2012 for the final and there is no guarantee what that might be.

[mbratrud]

LOL Just laying it out there... Whoever thought it would be good idea to sell 2 years crop next year in a down trend with World Wheat supplies of over 690MMT was not thinking clearly! Unless they priced it months ago for Aug delivery, through futures or US System. For those that did not price to now ask for favours from the gov't when they have been crystal clear on their position is crazy. I just find it ironic that some of the advocates for Market Freedom are regretting a marketing decision and want special concessions. I would think your only oportunity to sell before Aug 1 will be through CWB GDC's.

[Kodiak]

I looked back over the posts in this thread, and I don't see anyone specifically asking for a release from the decisions they made on their 2011 crop. However, Bill and Tom make valid points. For the good of the industry (Including farmers, the trade, AND the NewCWB) I think a rational discussion should take place. This discussion should include the consequences of all the alternatives. If there is a significant amount of grain, this will be an issue for all of us. Let's not bury our heads in a pile of wheat.

I won't criticize anyone for deciding to contract on the “A”, or not to sell. The fat lady is still miles away from the concert hall. I have no way of knowing anyone else's financial or marketing strategies. They may very well be better and more sophisticated than mine, or anyone else on this thread.

From my perspective, it makes no sense to not consider adjustments and modifications to the transition. New information will come to light until the day it’s over, so to scream “no changes” makes no sense. We are in uncharted waters in the present environment, and until we have a full open market on August 1, I hope we can make adjustments to ensure a smooth transition. We owe it to ourselves and everyone concerned. Farmers with contracts, those without, the CWB, and NewCWB may all stand benefit from flexibility.

[TOM4CWB]

Kodiak,

Good points.

If we can transition through the August 1 2012 with as little supply interruption to customers as is reasonable... our customers will be better off... as will we.

If it were me (which it is not) I would start offering fixed fee buybacks to growers... and allow the trade some flex to find a home for this grain.

Here is info from our Dec CWB PRO:

"The PRO is the forecast of the final pool return. It includes the estimated value on grain that has already been priced, and the forecasted value on grain that has yet to be priced. The CWB prices wheat on a pace that is approved annually by the board of directors. The futures and options markets are used to moderate faster or slower cash sales to ensure pricing follows this pace. At the time of this PRO, the CWB has priced approximately 46 per cent of the expected 2011-12 crop year deliveries of wheat. It is expected that the wheat pricing level will reach approximately 50 per cent by the end of December."

It is truly hard to fathom why the crazy 8 didn't sell more wheat earlier in the crop year... on rallies.

No wonder our customers leave us as their residual supplier of stocks!

[mbratrud]

Kodiak, I agree 100 percent but that
will be up to the CWB to decide until
Aug 1 2012. The last thing we need in
this transition is to start offering No
cost no cost buy backs and export
permits for noncontracted Grain. That
is what we are talking about here not?
If we are talking about buybacks on A
series grain that's one thing, but if
you are talking about grain that guys
decided to hold until Aug 1 that's
another.

I apologize if I come across a little
strong, but everyone knew the CWB was
only going to offer an A series. They
even extended the Deadline. For Months
the government has been saying Aug 1
2012. To now say Ok thanks for
Marketing freedom, and although we know
what the rules were we made a choice now
I think the rule should be change
because I may have made the wrong
choice. There is no way that changing
the rules now for what would easily be
less than 10 percent would not have a
negetive impact for those who contracted
and delivered. And there is no way
offering adhoc exemptions would improve
the transition. The CWB needs to have a
period to wrap up positions and prepare
for the open market. That's my opinion.
I don't even have wheat or Durum this
year so I really don't care. I'm just
calling it the way I see it. Sorry for
grammer nightmare, typing from BB.

[Kodiak]

If we think non-contract wheat isn't going to be bought and sold (and delivered into the system) between now and August 1, we're deluding ourselves. And to think last Oct 31 that the rules would be case hardened and cast in concrete, would be a bit naïve too. Better to accept reality, be responsive, and provide fluidity, than not to IMHO.

[silverback]

I am pretty sure I never suggested our farm needs this wheat bought before Aug 1, did I?

We will gladly keep it in good condition and take the premium so that the new/old cwb gets none of it. (I guess we can't afford that vacation until we sell though!)

I think what I first said was those that chose the A series and knew the pro should live with that choice, just as we chose to keep ours out of the system until August. If they let the durum out no charge, then I guess they need to let the hrs out too. I don't really care anymore.

I was also asking if anyone can remember a year that the cwb only offered an A series for HIGH QUALITY HRS? I believe there were years when they didn't ask for the crap, but #1/#2 ?? We simply cannot believe how it is that the cwb decided to only take the amount offered on the A and then go on sabbatical? If their mandate was to dispose of all grain offered, how come there is still so much not contracted to them?

I think that is what I was wondering?

[oneoff]

Un-contracted grain implies to me that no one has any hold or right to grain currently the property of an individual farmer. There should be no differentiation in the future as to any obligation to the grain trade or the CWB when it comes to uncontracted grain.

To insinuate that one has made a decision to not sell it; and thus one must suffer the consequences is absurd. A farmer with uncontracted grain should have always had; and may in the future may be the one who determines what will be done with his uncontracted grain. It appears there will always be many farmers who will continue to have a problem with this concept.

[TOM4CWB]

I see with the CWB offering 'B' series contracts... folks are still going to have to make a marketing decision... as post Aug. 1 CWB contracts come out... again a choice to be made.