Agentina got rain!

[Daylate]

Upwards of 3 inches in some areas. Looks like we'll be waiting for a bullish report tomorrow to move canola to the next level.What's your guy's thoughts on canola being able to make it over $550/T before spring?
I'm starting to think it won't happen this year.

[bucket]

If the reports about Argentina were half right, a rain now wouldn't help anything. It would be the equivalent of getting rain after you swathed, it can't help.

But traders always believe rain makes grain.

[bucket]

About canola, there are fewer acres being seeded every day because:

1. Its dry, no early moisture.

2. Wheat and durum acres are more attractive at this time and alot of guys have been waiting to straighten out some rotations.

3. The bullish side of canola is the amount that has disappeared domestically and for export. A dry spring should rally it about 550 easy.

[MLamirandeRM]

In regards to canola...
There is a high probability that canola will reach $550 this spring based on weather issues (reports of dry conditions that are expected to persist into spring planting in Western Canada) and thoughts that producers will also switch some acres to wheat and barley due to the open market.

In regards to Argentina...
While the rains are heavier than initially thought, they aren't likely to have much of an impact on corn production now that the general consensus is that the damage is done as it was dry through the pollination phase and it expected to return to abnormally hot and dry next week. In terms of soybeans (which is more directly relatable for canola) the rains may prove beneficial as they have not yet entered their critical growing phase.

Michelle Lamirande, Farms.com Risk Management

[hedgehog]

but no rain in ukraine, wheat crop not good, canola poor

[furrowtickler]

I think the rain in Argentina is a "daylate" or more...