Feedlot Barley Bids Slip

[errolanderson]

Lethbridge-area barley bids are now in
gradual decline. Buyers are now
deferring barley sales and movement as
grower marketings are picking up and
more wheat is entering rations.

Alberta feedlot bids have lost about
$5/MT since mid-Dec and our take is
another $5/MT drop into late winter.

Malt prices are holding up. Buyers
appear to be testing the water to see
what it takes to contract malt barley
for next fall. Solid Asian malt demand
expected in 2012.

Errol

[blackpowder]

My local malster in the $5 area for fall with storage for later months. Claims to roughly follow (70%) Minn.
Would like to lock some in before seeding! Would like to see another half dollar though. I may blink first.
$75/t penalty for non- delivery on every bu. over 20 bpa contracted.

[errolanderson]

There should be solid buyer interest for new crop malt barley ahead. If you are looking for an additional 50 cents/bu, this is not out-of-line in my mind. But the feed barley market may be the one that wavers. Cashflow selling may pressure that feed prices lower at the feedlot level until roadban season.

Errol

[silverback]

How much feed wheat are some of these feedlots going to in these rations? What are they bidding for decent feed wheat?

[errolanderson]

Wheat has been entering rations in central
Alberta. 58lb red bids have been ranging
between $197 to $201/MT delivered. The
high price of barley is triggering some
feed substitution.
AgValue Brokers in Calgary are a good
contact for a rundown of the feedlot
market in central/southern Alberta

[cottonpicken]

Nobody else wants to call bullshit on this whole
thread?

[errolanderson]

Don't shoot the messenger . . . . Cheaper
wheat has been replacing barley in feedlot
rations for the last 6 weeks. Picture
Butte feedlot delivered 48lb barley bids
topped out at $218/MT about mid-December.
This market is now down in a $209 -
$211/MT range.

Errol

[ajl]

High price of barley? With corn in the 7-
8 range, $4.50 barley is low priced. Had
a feed wheat quote at $5.70/bu recently in
S AB. There seems to be a lot of feed
around and there is going to be feed durum
as well since the durum market has
certainly not met expectations. Hoping
for a spring weather market due to dryness
for more sales.

[charliep]

No more $7 to $8/bu corn. CBT corn futures today $6/bu. US corn still higher than domestic feed grain prices. Alberta basis depending on rail car numbers likely in the 75 cent to a dollar over range. Imported corn $7/bu or $280/tonne track.

A market information service ARD uses suggested that $4/bu corn futures could be in the cards next fall. That would mean $5/bu landed Alberta prices or $200/tonne track Southern Alberta. I'm not that negative but continued cheap feed wheat in the world and 2012 corn acreage of 94 mln acres combined with 160 plus corn yields will put more pressure on feed grain prices.

[Burbert]

Stealige, & Tookage by multies, result in
lower, & lower, and lower, Comedian grain
prices. Is anybody suprised buy this turn
of events, itn soo, you've bean in a cave
to long. Benchmarking and transparency
are a bitch! Aren't they?

[jcv]

Well Burbert, at least you have the
option of selling your wheat to the CWB,
and getting more value than the rest of
us.

[checking]

Local agent not in the habit of giving bad information suggested delivered barley into Alberta was in the $5 to $5.25 range. If correct, I don't see a change.

There is a word other than "funny", for this, but feed growers scrambling to accept lower and lower bids into Alberta. Yeah, that would really get me hauling.

Is this the same rosy news for Manitoba?

[errolanderson]

The Western Cdn feedlot market is by far
the largest user of our feedgrains.
Domestic feedlot consumption is usually
10X higher than the board export
program. Board's export program was one
of selling to Saudi Arabia for that
country to distribute through the middle
east as camel feed. If it wasn't for our
local livestock market, our barley
market may look like rye of today.

As for the break in prices at the
feedlot level, lack of grower selling in
Nov/Dec was likely due to a delay to
sell into the new tax year. Now that it
is the new tax year, barley offers are
starting to pickup. But it has been an
overall warm winter in Alberta. Cattle
are gaining well and being pushed
forward. This has also reduced the
demand for feed.

But barley prices from a feeders' point
of view are very high. There is no
debating this. Alberta feedlots may not
want to feed wheat, but they are used to
feeding wheat. This has happened in
years past when wheat becomes cheaper to
feed. It is tricky to introduce into
rations, but it's done
Southern Alberta bids are likely to drop
further as feed buyer demand for barley
is weakening. Expect Lethbridge area
48lb bids to potentially test $205/MT
delivered by late Feb.

This is good news for feeders.
Hopefully, agriville is meant for both
grain growers and livestock feeders.

Sk and Mb bids may hold up due to grower
reluctance to price into a weaker
market. But you may see your delivery
times stretched out.

Also, cash corn prices have dropped
significantly stateside. Cash bids are
now around $5.50/bu.

This post is meant to alert growers of
the market dynamics effecting your feed
barley market right now.

PS ICE wheat, durum, barley contracts
begin to trade on Monday. Great news.

Errol

[checking]

Errol.

Neat information. Hope the trend stated is off, otherwise laughing at $5.90 winter wheat picked up shouldn't be a repeatable move.

I also like your easy language that doesn't require a 40 word professional handbook to determine what the hay you just said.

Delivery in time to meet a tax year end has to have the stars line up. I've found with fob it's like pushing a rope. How do you control a trucker's schedule?

[TOM4CWB]

Thanks Errol;

Great to have your added info!

Looking into the crystal ball is always a fun experience... if there is a profit... I am too conservative to keep hanging on...

Cheers!