Will Canadian Farmland Be Going Public?

[Hopperbin]

Yep training is a good thing. When you got 6 quadtracks on 6 drills and they all get stuck and one folded into transport.

[freewheat]

I just want to bring up that to some of us who have lost a small fortune due to weather the past 5 or 7 years, land as an investment is shaky. That is where i am coming from. Whether it is early frost, flooding, or drought, the weather will dictate farmland prices over the long term.

Wow, some of your land prices have gone up a lot! But here they are stagnant from incessant weather. My point is, believe it or not, it could happen anywhere. Throw in 5 pathetic years, and the investment is not only shot, its ability to provide an income is shot. What happens when it gets dry again?

I just don't see what these companies are seeing. I don't think it will last.

[hedgehog]

some companies have a hunch that grain is still cheap, and is going to get a LOT dearer.
800 C/BU is not really that expensive for spring wheat when it was nearly that in late 70,s. when gas was nothing and labour v cheap.
In 1973 wheat went from £30/ton to £100 in 12 months, when £2,000/yr was a good wage.
All due to a russian drought.
If a ton of wheat went to half a months average salary, like in 73, the sh*t would hit the fan!

[Hopperbin]

I wish I never would have thrown them old books out.

[Burbert]

Our neighbours are the worst, landgrubbers
in our area. Dob eat dog world out there.
Only sell ta the highest bidder. Fthe
neighbours. Comedian framing has changed.
We have a cracker running Gag now. What
ya expect. Its angribusiness, bucks, big
bucks is the only ting that counts. Money
talks and bullsh-t walks eh!!!!!!

[malta]

Seen these kind of things before. Fund managers will pay themselves about $250,000 per year to "manage' the fund. Guaranteed to be a staff of at least 20 to manage the $100m. tough work collecting the rent from the farmer once per year. Instead of the hoped for return of 4% per year the investors will get about 1%. When the crunch comes in a couple of years and the investors lose 30-50% of their money, there will be calls for an investigation because the government didn't protect the city folks from themselves. Yep, gonna be fun.

[furrowtickler]

All good points except Burbot.
Malta, you are soo right.
BTW - Willie I fully agree with your statement 100%
IMO this b/s will sort itself out in due time with investors lickin their balls like beaten dogs in 5-10 years.
Simply not enough money to go around on a 10 year average to pay out the kind of dividends investors demand.

[buzz]

Good discussion guys.

I sometimes wonder who is going to finance
agriculture in 15 to 20 years when I want to
retire. Most of our operations require some
serious money to buy them. I don't want to have
all my equity tied up with no out. Just thinking on
a cold winter morning.....

[bucket]

If people look at the way they acquired their farming operation which is typically one piece at a time, that may be an effective exit strategy as well.

You grew your farm a base hit at a time and won the game and now when you want to retire you want not just a home run but a grand slam.

Its funny, people have the moral support of communities as they grow and prosper but never think of giving back in the same way. Maybe sell a chunk of land to a young guy with potential, that through no fault of his, was not afforded the same chances you were.

Also, if you are looking for someone to finance the next guy to buy you out - look in the mirror. Plenty of farms in the sixties didn't need a bank. Retiring farmers took on that role and it was a good deal for both parties. Lawyers can make it happen.

[farmaholic]

Excellent thread filled with common sense for the most part. Funny the only people that seem to see it for what it's worth are the ones with their hands in the dirt!!!! I can't wait to see what happens in the future. I like high land prices because it makes mine worth more too but when prices deviate too far from productive capacity to speculation there will be a correction sooner or later. These are interesting times.

[SASKFARMER3]

Its like any thing, Ponzi scheme all over.
But like anything patience and wait. Seems
to work, has in past.
I think in future if my kids dont want to
farm we will rent property. Land always
has value. Look at USA lots of family
owned land that hasnt been farmed by a
family for three generations. IMHO

[jd3007]

I have to agree with Bucket, I see very few large operations wanting to sell out in smaller parcels. In many situations these operations have grown to a size where the only people that can afford to buy these farms
are investors or European dollars. Farmers have done it to themselves as growers by buying up all our neighbors. I have also seen many growers who were the largest farmers in the area sell to investors because they didnt want to sell to their neighbors because the neighbors would then be the new "big boy" on the block. Its sad but true. I seen it happen in my own backyard where I had an uncle who sold to investors and didnt offer any of it to local individuals,including myself who all were interested in his package. His reasoning was no one could afford to buy him out completely and he was scared land prices would drop so he closed the deal. After the deal was done he was over and was somewehat regretting his decision telling us that he was the best farmer in the area and no one would farm the land as good as him or would ever be as succesfull as him in the area. Im sure this has happened to many of you and as long as there is a "pride issue" among sellers we will see investors and outside buyers coming in.