2012 crop

[Klause]

Hopperbin, was told $11.30 hit today...

I can make a profit at $9.50... so I'm tempted to lock
in a bit... then again, maybe lock more in with put
options... Hmmm I'll sleep on it.


Sorry I didn't call.... we got carried away cleaning this
appartment... and Darcy's parents are gonna be here
in 15 minutes.

[rhoff]

I read one analyst who says that with dryness in
Ukraine and south America we should be able to
seed 20 mil acres and still be in a demand pull
scenario. Which to me seems rather bulish
because I have a hard time seeing how we are
going to get to 20 mil acres of canola. Every
other crop pencils well enough to keep guys from
pushing rotations.

[bgmb]

I am waiting for at least 12 to start pricing canola.

Locking in HRS makes me nervous due to the fact you can't lock in grade or protein spreads so I will likely end up binning all me wheat.

[fjlip]

Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- ****seed production globally will trail demand in the 2012-13 marketing year as dry weather in the European Union and Ukraine limits crop prospects, Oil World said.

Ukraine’s output will fall 19 percent to 1.13 million metric tons, the Hamburg-based oilseed researcher said today in a report. That’d be the lowest in five years, U.S. Department of Agriculture data show. EU production will gain 4.1 percent to 19.9 million tons after producers harvested the least in three years in 2011-12, Oil World said. The EU will have to import more to meet demand, according to the report.

“An unusually large share of the planted winter ****seed did not germinate well and will be abandoned, primarily in Ukraine,” Oil World said today. Dry weather “will keep EU import requirements of ****seed and canola very high in the 2012-13 season.”

****seed futures on ICE Futures Canada in Winnipeg have declined 12 percent in the past year. Output in Canada, the single-largest grower of canola, will gain 3.8 percent to 14.7 million tons, Oil World said.

World production of ****seed and canola, a low-acid variety of the oilseed, may total 61.5 million tons in the 2012-13 marketing year, up 3.4 percent from the prior 12 months, the first increase in three years, Oil World said. Because of small opening stockpiles, which are down 20 percent to 5.1 million tons, total supply of ****seed will lag consumption, the researcher said.

“Considering the current poor winter ****seed crop conditions in Ukraine and the sizable decline in winter ****seed plantings in the EU-27 as well as the prospective low world stocks of ****seed and canola in June and July 2012, a further increase in Canadian canola production will be required to satisfy demand in 2012,” the researcher said.

[hobbyfrmr]

Wait for $ 9.80/bushel canola then pull the trigger.

[hobbyfrmr]

In all seriousness, locking in a low basis if it's
offered would be a good first step. If the futures
rise then lock in only the % of production you are
comfortable with.

[furrowtickler]

rhoff, did that analyst own a pencil or just throwing numbers out there . Ya we could - possibly, but we may not.
What happens if only 16-17 mill acres go in??? Anyone pencil that in??
I was able to lock in a much higher net profit last year at this time.