Cdn Retail Sales Falter

[errolanderson]

A noticeable slowdown in Cdn retail
sales. Fatigue may be setting in as
consumer and government debt is way too
high in Canada. Expect some weakness in
our real estate markets this year. There
is no way Bank of Canada will alter
their key lending rates over the next
year . . . maybe even lower.

Interesting note: Japan recorded its
first trade deficit in more than 30
years. More imports than exports.

Our belief is slowdown in Cdn economy
may pressure the loonie further . . .
sub 95 cents possible ahead. U.S. dollar
may rally further.

Errol

[cottonpicken]

thanks for that jap info

was waiting for that to put a short on
their treasuries

who is our?are you apart of something
market related?

[LWeber]

NEW YORK | Wed Jan 25, 2012 12:58pm EST

(Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday said it will not raise interest rates until at least late 2014, even later than investors expected, in an effort to support a sluggish economic recovery.

COMMENTS:

RICHARD FRANULOVICH, SENIOR CURRENCY STRATEGIST, WESTPAC, NEW YORK

"The Fed statement has a dovish flavor to it since the Fed has pushed out keeping rates exceptionally low until late 2014. That's why we are seeing the dollar sell off and yields push lower. The Fed recognizes that the U.S. economy is recovering, but it's not fast enough to push unemployment to acceptable levels. Overall, it would seem like the Fed statement is a risk-on signal. But I wouldn't be comfortable buying the euro because of issues with Greece. I would instead buy the Aussie and Canadian dollar versus the U.S. dollar."

[cottonpicken]

thank you fomc

imo the canauck buck is only in a very
short term downtrend

[checking]

Errol.

Do you agree with the concensus that has been out there for quite some time that the Japanese deficits are here to stay. They won't be replacing their nuclear energy with anything except expensive oil, hence deficits.

[errolanderson]

A great question, but out-of-my-league. The fact that Japan is the world's 3rd largest economy and they are running deficits is yet another worry for global financial markets.

Stock markets are rallying today after Bernanke's statement, which is odd to me as these statements suggest tougher times ahead. Go figure . . . .

My fear is that stock markets may have a day-of-reckoning fairly soon, if various global factors converge

Larry, what are your thoughts?

[cottonpicken]

japan is a ticking time bomb

something like 50 percent of tax
revenues go to paying interest on debt

they are heading straight into outright
default country

[cottonpicken]

the only way they where able to fund
themselves was because of their trade
surplus

kick in their demographics and you have
a nightmare scenario

[cottonpicken]

keep in mind some investors who seen
greece bond crisis made several thousand
percent gains in a few months time

[checking]

Thank you, Errol.

[LWeber]

The whole derivative trading ponzi air scheme will implode someday, Errol.

It is the OTC unregulated markets that will take out the monetary system as we know it.

Asset bases that you can touch and feel is where I want to be - but not housing.

[errolanderson]

Markets continue to react to yesterday's
Bernanke glow on getting rates
exceptionally low until 2014. This is
not a surprise, but markets are acting
like it is. To us, stock markets appear
quite overvalued right now.

U.S. Fed has cut their inflation
estimate to 2% which is effectively
deflation in several sectors. U.S. Fed
inflation estimates have been too high
for many months now.

Errol

[cottonpicken]

inflation estimates to high?

the fed just said it would show up at
the bond auctions if need be ie qe

this is the only way to keep a lid on
rates

what are the deflationist going to say
when they cant buy gold at any price?

whoops?

[Cattleman]

Cotton, in 2012, what is your estimate on the probability of having $2500 or more gold? What probability would you put on having $5.00 OR less corn?