January Pool Return Outlook

[charliep]

Durum Values Down in Latest CWB 2011-12 Pool Return Outlook
Winnipeg -- The CWB today released its January 2012 Pool Return Outlook (PRO) for the 2011-12 crop year. Wheat values are relatively unchanged, varying from last month's PRO by $5 per tonne higher to $3 per tonne lower, depending on class, grade and protein level. Durum values have decreased between $2 and $11 per tonne, with the exception of No. 5 CWAD, which is up by $1 per tonne. Malting barley values have declined by $1 per tonne since last month. Pool A feed barley is unchanged.


[URL="http://www.cwb.ca/dom/db/contracts/pool_return/pro.nsf/WebPRPub/2011_20120126.html?OpenDocument&CropYr=2011-12"]January PRO[/URL]

[charliep]

A couple of weeks behind but the below is the link to the CWB historical charts.

[URL="http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/farmers/producer/historical/pdf/2011-12/2011-12fpcbpccharts.pdf"]Charts[/URL]

Always interesting to compare the PRO to the current producer payment options.

<a href="http://www.cwb.ca/db/contracts/ppo/ppo_prices.nsf/fixed_price/2011_index.html">fixed price contracts</a>

[agstar77]

Sept delivery #2 HRS 13.5 7.25. Viterra e.o.m.

[ProFarmer]

Just like before the CWB is doing a wonderful job of giving away our grain to the lowest bidder. I cannot wait till this stupid organization is gone by the wayside like the DOE DOE bird...

[perspicacious]

agstar, which Viterra?

[$short]

Charlie, why the drop in durum? Any thoughts?

[charliep]

Slowing demand out of Europe/other parts of the
world, currency instability and what appears (at
least to date) a pretty good durum crop in North
Africa.

This lines up with the cWB commentary.

Durum
Once again, world durum prices have been
negatively impacted by buyer resistance to the
high-priced regime. The world durum trade for
2011-12, excluding semolina, is estimated at 6.7
million tonnes. Last year, in comparison, world
durum trade was 7.3 million tonnes. This decrease
in global demand has more than offset the U.S.
production shortfall. Total global trade
commitments as of mid-January stood at 4.0
million tonnes, compared to last year's 5.1 million
tonnes. Last year at this juncture, the U.S. had sold
794 thousand tonnes. This year, its total
commitments stand at only 328 thousand tonnes.
This is obviously related to the fact that weather in
the Northern Plains severely reduced U.S.
production and buyers have resolved to ration their
demand in the 2011-12 marketing year. Price
prospects going forward are weighed down, in part,
by the ability of demand to hold out until early-
season 2012-13 production comes on line (U.S.
desert, Mexican, and North Africa production) in the
second quarter of calendar year 2012. Both the
Canadian dollar and the euro remain have rallied
somewhat against the U.S. dollar. A stronger euro
drops the U.S.-dollar-based export price,
potentially negative to EU exports and positive for
its import demand. A stronger Canadian dollar
exacerbates the decline in the U.S.-dollar-
denominated price in terms of farmgate return.

[agstar77]

Winnipeg Viterra.

[LEP]

Yes the cdn dollar is not helping us right now.

Oh to have a .68 cent dollar with these prices.

[bucket]

LEP

I remember the 70 cent dollar and prices were not that good.

Experts always say we would do better with a lower dollar but the best prices in the last decade have been with a par dollar.

[bucket]

If the cwb continues to drop the PRO by 11 bucks a month, by july the initial payment will 110 percent of their predicted forecast from February 2011.

Well, maybe not that bad but you can understand why they are letting guys out of their A series contract. Every bushel they sell now is dropping the return.

[newguy]

Seems as if the CWB asking price last fall was so high they never sold any. Or else CWB sold half crop before the price went up and are going to sell the other half when it goes back down. Either way some marketing staff need to get the boot.

[bucket]

No kidding someone should get the boot.

That and the fact they haven't put a program in place for the new crop is inexcusable.