Baltic Dry Index

[sumdumguy]

Time to hop on the short train.

[mbratrud]

My Bad the 2008 Lows were at the begining of recesion but had bounced back 3 months later, to pre 06 levels.

[cottonpicken]

Lots of data out there is skewed or misleading or an
outright lie.

The bdi is more accurate than many indicators.

Yes an overcapacity is there,but global trade health is
not going up or static its going down.

[mbratrud]

It would be interesting to know how much
of this traffic slowdown is products out
of China?

[bucket]

cotton

Could it also be an indicator that the grain is not there to ship?

Lets just take a moment and start questioning some production estimates. If the experts were out by lets say a couple million tonnes, how many boats would be idled?

I understand what you are saying, but I can't help to think that this time there is more than just economic slowing affecting the BDI.

Short term overcapacity will lead to some boats getting scrapped.

Short term reduction in available exportable grain could also lead to this level of BDI.

Grain companies, like the new cwb, would be wise to jump all over this opportunity.

[Fransisco]

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2012/02/irrelevance-of-baltic-freight-index.html

[cottonpicken]

Do not know what percent of ships are dedicated to grains and any conclusion would be on broad based market.

Someone else maybe/probably follows global grain exports/imports and would know better.

The harpex index which tracts container price is also way down.

http://www.harperpetersen.com/harpex/harpexRH.do?timePeriod=Years10&&dataType=Harpex&fl oatLeft=None&floatRight=None

[cottonpicken]

Fran,it my believe dennis gartman is one of the
dumbest analysts ever to write a letter.

[bucket]

Maybe its like history channel's shipping wars. They just keep bidding it down so they have something to do.

[mbratrud]

http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_b
altic_dry_index.htm#bdi 10 yr chart.
trying to remember the period 2003 -
2004 all I remember were prices were
shitty. If the BDI has not overshot to
the downside it is quite an anomaly.
interesting weeks and months ahead to be
sure.

[errolanderson]

Believe the world is getting a real-time glimpse of the serious credit problems in Europe. Believe there is a sizable slowdown in ocean freight between China and Europe. This is not a good sign for commodity prices.

[ajl]

Does baltic dry for bulk shipping only or
does it include container vessels as well?
I figure a drop in Chinese exports to
Europe would primarily affect container
shipping and not bulk.