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Baltic Dry Index

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    #16
    It would be interesting to know how much
    of this traffic slowdown is products out
    of China?

    Comment


      #17
      cotton

      Could it also be an indicator that the grain is not there to ship?

      Lets just take a moment and start questioning some production estimates. If the experts were out by lets say a couple million tonnes, how many boats would be idled?

      I understand what you are saying, but I can't help to think that this time there is more than just economic slowing affecting the BDI.

      Short term overcapacity will lead to some boats getting scrapped.

      Short term reduction in available exportable grain could also lead to this level of BDI.

      Grain companies, like the new cwb, would be wise to jump all over this opportunity.

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        #18
        http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2012/02/irrelevance-of-baltic-freight-index.html

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          #19
          Do not know what percent of ships are dedicated to grains and any conclusion would be on broad based market.

          Someone else maybe/probably follows global grain exports/imports and would know better.

          The harpex index which tracts container price is also way down.

          http://www.harperpetersen.com/harpex/harpexRH.do?timePeriod=Years10&&dataType=Harpex&fl oatLeft=None&floatRight=None

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            #20
            Fran,it my believe dennis gartman is one of the
            dumbest analysts ever to write a letter.

            Comment


              #21
              Maybe its like history channel's shipping wars. They just keep bidding it down so they have something to do.

              Comment


                #22
                http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_b
                altic_dry_index.htm#bdi 10 yr chart.
                trying to remember the period 2003 -
                2004 all I remember were prices were
                shitty. If the BDI has not overshot to
                the downside it is quite an anomaly.
                interesting weeks and months ahead to be
                sure.

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                  #23
                  Believe the world is getting a real-time glimpse of the serious credit problems in Europe. Believe there is a sizable slowdown in ocean freight between China and Europe. This is not a good sign for commodity prices.

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                    #24
                    Does baltic dry for bulk shipping only or
                    does it include container vessels as well?
                    I figure a drop in Chinese exports to
                    Europe would primarily affect container
                    shipping and not bulk.

                    Comment


                      #25
                      Just heard some info about the Chinese economy. One is within 5 years the Chinese economy will surpass the United States in dollar value. Also in that time frame China will become a more important trading partner than the USA. The Chinese economy is still growing at 9 percent per year.

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                        #26
                        Found this very interesting from WSJ yesterday – it appears that “Made in China” may be a thing of the past. The world’s best place to make things cheaply may no longer be able to sustain the trend. The combination of China’s one-child policy and cultural preference to boys (read: shrinking pool of workers), rising middle class, increase in commercial land prices, supply-chain problems, and volatile energy prices have likely turned the table on the trade imbalances that have developed with China over the years. The Nationalists among us are cheering as the changing cost dynamics have boosted hopeful talk that U.S. manufacturers will turn to “in-sourcing” and move operations back home. But, they best not buy the confetti too soon as Mexico may be stepping up to the plate. Despite security concerns, wages are substantially lower than in the U.S. A look at recent trade statistics suggests companies are already on the move. The number of loaded shipping containers entering the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, CA—the major entry points for Asian imports—edged down 0.2% last year. But, trains and trucks carried 8.7% more freight, by weight, from Mexico to the U.S. in the first 11 months of last year than they did a year earlier.

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                          #27
                          Interesting things happenning. Hard to grasp it all. China's economy is obviously being fueled currently more from domestic consumption as exports may have been maxed out. Not sure about the stats on boys girls anymore, as far as I am concerned the mentality has shifted to raising girls with a future over a boy with none. Our education on china could be much improved. Would be interesting if there are any stats on what is moving where when we look at the BDI.

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                            #28
                            Doing any buying Hopper?

                            Can you believe the p/e ratio of sso is 3?

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                              #29
                              Since I almost doubled my money on PBN I decided to purchase PMG in Dec. So far so good. I am in celebration mode cause the chinese ex lost a hundred grand on HNU, greedy bitch.

                              Comment


                                #30
                                Cotton I believe a lot of SSO's earnings were the result from the sale of PVG. I don't know if some of the earnings are carried forward or was a one time deal. Feb. 27 will be the day but if PVG is still rallying like it is something is not correct.

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