Looming Market Risks

[errolanderson]

An opinion but; serious risks surround
markets right now. Greece is a write-
off, Germany is not pleased. It's almost
like a dog burning down his doghouse and
still barking about it. Odds of Greek
follow-through on austerity appears low.
They are nodding their heads to get the
cash. A bottomless pit.

Italy, Spain, Portugal bank downgrades
yesterday. No surprise.

Loonie working below parity. 95 cents or
bust? if equities start a quick descent.

U.S. grains and cattle might be in for a
rough day sometime soon.

Errol

[Kodiak]

Another opinion, although not one I buy into completely. However, it is plausible, and I think we have to respect it.
All the news about Greece, Moody's ratings, Italy, Spain, - even China real estate- is old news. The markets have that well priced in long ago. Markets are forward looking and peer ahead into the future for new factors. Factors which individual participants, and certainly observers, don't fully comprehend until the event(s) are over. Greece, Germany, France, Moody’s et al-- it is all in.
There is a good chance that for example the price action we are seeing now in soybeans (5 month highs) has South American weather long priced in despite the daily chatter by the talking heads on CNBC and Bloomberg. The market is looking way past that. North American and China production are now being factored. Chinese ending stocks could be the most important determinant of summer and fall soy prices. Same for corn. Why is wheat stabilizing and rallying in the face of the well known situation with world stocks? The whole world knows we're awash in wheat....it's conventional wisdom. Yet the market is 40 cents off its December lows.....
Interesting.

[cottonpicken]

Imo,its the bond market.

The central banks of the world are making it clear
that they will step in.

Japans huge move today of a 130 billion asset
purchase is evidence that the can will be continually
kicked,good for gold,good for commodities,bad for
bonds and purchasing power of currencies.

[hobbyfrmr]

John Deere does not need to build a front boom.
There is enough farmers that automatically buy
the name and green paint. Deere will end up
buying a front boom sprayer manufacturer and
then painting it green to present to farmers. Its
just business.

[TOM4CWB]

tipsy,

The more time passes... the less likelyhood any court would shut this C18 operational legislation down...

[TOM4CWB]

I am Annoyed JOE!

I posted on the Court case...and it got lost... while the JD machinery post got inserted instead here... I wonder how that happened??? Joe???

[TOM4CWB]

Tipsy,

I think you answered your own question...

[TOM4CWB]

Tipsy,

It was rumoured that Oberg and Co were offering fall 2012 cash wheat prices... on their SHortline/elevator system...what does that tell you about what Oberg himself is expecting to happen???

[Kodiak]

It seems politicians and central bankers have the same interest.....don't let anything painful or bad happen on my watch.
So what's the result? It can't be anything but what we are seeing. They will do what they do because they can....devalue the debt (not through default but by forced writedowns) and devalue their currencies.
I agree cott, its inflationary. But look out when they need to tighten. Could be painful then. We experienced it in the 80's

[errolanderson]

What's interesting about these global
economic discussions is we can either
take an 'inflationary bent' on market
direction (which I respect) or take a
'deflationary bent' (which is my
personal view). What's interesting is,
market bumps are seen ahead regardless
of inflation/deflation viewpoint.

I'm still of the opinion that global
credit deleveraging (now in its early
stages) may be cause for a general
commodity price drop over the next 2 to
3 years. My concern is central
governments (U.S. Fed and friends) may
actually make the long-term situation
worse with their money printing
policies. That's why Bernanke is likely
hesitant over announcing QE3.

Errol