Strap in: It may get ugly

[errolanderson]

Euro zone tensions are getting real
high, real fast. My apologies for firing
out all these cautionary market notes,
but I truly believe the global financial
markets may be at high risk which could
quickly spill into our agriculture
markets.

It doesn't matter how many beans were
lost in the Brazilian drought or how
cold it was recently in eastern Europe.
if global credit markets again freeze
up, our markets are in trouble.

The Greece situation appears now
spinning out-of-control. Portugal and
Italy are next.

Now Ontario is in the media with Quebec
not far behind. Canada is far from
ammune from this situation.

In my opinion, get price protected ie:
canola, wheat and cattle come to mind.

All the best with your cash marketing
decisions

Errol

[wd9]

considering the volume of ice wheat, may
be less risk with the global economy.

This talk of greece is getting pretty old.
The last 10 bumps in the stock market have
been sell stocks, blah blah blah greece is
broke, stocks go down, buy them back,
greece is ok. Let some time pass, do it
again. News by traders, for traders.

[rockpile]

Well said WD9. Greece - a nation of 11.1 million
people that never did have an economy is going to
unravel the Global framework? I think not! Way too
much media in my opinion. What about the Viking
countries, you never hear about them. Sounds like
they're doing pretty good. And Spain and Italy -
bottom line is they are solvent. France - needs
some tweaking. On the positive - US employment
improving, big 3 automakers are steaming ahead;
only problem there is politics. And now for China, a
slowdown. Wow, 10% annual growth not
sustainable, a soft fall may be 8%, a hard fall 5%.
Compared to our expected 2% growth, 5 must be
really hard to take. And housing issues in China, are
they a collapse, or just a reconciliation and
stabilization, an evening out of the bump?
Some people see the glass half empty, and some
see it half full. But far too many can't even find the
glass.

[rhoff]

I know Europe looks scary but I really think the worst is over.The ECB has taken the contagion out because of the massive liquidity they dumped on the banks.That massive injection has allowed the banks to stop wholesaling Italian bonds and has scared away the shorts.Keep in mind the ECB is planning another massive injection in a couple of weeks.
I dont think their problems will be solved anytime soon but I dont think its going to blow up like it was about to in October.We know the Germans won't agree to start the printing press for the euro members,but Dragi can still do that for the Euro banks and that has been effective.
I also think that the worlds largest economy (which is still the US) doesnt have to grow that much in order to make up for a European recession.

[errolanderson]

rhoff . . . i don't think the worst has
even started for europe. this is just
greece the media is paying attention to
. . . next is spain and portugal and
italy.

and yes i agree, greece isn't the bomb
to take down europe, but it is the fuse
to the bomb.

i just can't buy into the idea that the
worst is over for europe.

good discussion . . . .

errol

[rhoff]

The worst isn't over for the
citizens,government,and the overall economy.my
point is that the contagion and systemic risk of the
debt markets unravelling has been muted.
There isn't much doubt they will have a recession
however they will likely have a lot less influence
over global markets as evidenced the last several
weeks.
The actual number of people on the sell side of
euro member debt has decreased dramatically
which has allowed the markets to function a little
more orderly.
Watch this week for the ECB to offer another
round of liquidity experts expect it to be in a range
of 400 billion to 1 trillion euros. That is why they
have scared away so much speculative shorts.