March 1

[cottonpicken]

The isda makes a ruling on cds and greece.the
size and scope are beyond imagination.

Maybe todays action was based on the descion.

[boarderbloke]

I thought they were saying(media) yesterday that German was going to bankrole this second bailout of Greece. Is that not why the markets are moving up? Isn't Greece looked after?

[cottonpicken]

This is based on my opinion,which is based on what i
know and read from others,so take it with a grain of
salt,and if anyone sees flaws please point them out.

This seems bigger than anything i can imagine,i'll
take a point by point form to save time and
confusion.

-the cds is the credit default swap market

-this is insurance in the event an entity defaults on its
debt,this is purchased,mainly, by people who buy
bonds,as a hedge or insurance,for sometimes pennies
on the dollar

-some people bought these cds's as pure
speculation,there are many more outstanding than
the debt that they are suppose to hedge

-the people selling these where unregulated and
happen to be the people who make up the isda who
make the rules on wether or not a cds is triggered in
a "credit event"

-if they deem this an event/default,the money,sort
off,comes out of their pocket,so a greece write down
of say 75%,will probably be ruled a non cds payout.

-so now,people/entities holding bonds with cds
insurance are completely screwed.

-the debt holders of greece are probably about to get
smoked,these banks that hold this waste,have to take
massive write downs which will leave them insolvent.

-the big,big,big problem is what about the countries
that matter?Greece is insignificant compared to other
insolvent countries.

-those bond holders in unstable countries will start to
"COMPLETLY PANIC"

-this means the assets of every bank are worth much
less,which means they are insolvent,which means?

That is if the dominoes fall that way.

-if they fall the other way and a cds is triggered,the
five biggest banks in the us and world
evaporate,which means?

[errolanderson]

Greece is likely headed out of the
Eurozone by their own accord or booted
out by the time we sing jingle bells
again.

Germany's imposed austerity program is
likely too much for the Greek's to
handle.German leadership knows that
Greece has to be saved from default. But
the German population is fed up. So what
we have ahead is; German polititians
warning of a financial implosion, now
stir in political ill will and the
Greeks looking in-the-mirror and saying
should we jump ship? Rock 'n a hard spot
if I've ever seen one.

And to add to the drama, Portugal is now
entering centre stage with problems
every bit as severe as Greece.

Fixing the Greek crisis is as likely as
the Calgary Flames winning the Stanley
Cup.


Errol

[cottonpicken]

Just declared a non-credit event.

For years i thought the bond market would implode
do to inflation and monetization.

But now it looks like it will die because there is no
insurance .