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    canola- good news

    BEIJING (Reuters) - Chinese quarantine authorities will allow imports of Canadian canola by some selected crushers located in major growing areas, previously banned because of fungal disease concerns, traders said on Thursday.

    The import relaxation, likely to be cleared in the second half of the year, would further boost canola imports from the world's largest exporter to China later in the year.

    ICE Canada canola futures rose 11.6 percent in February, the biggest monthly gain since June 2010, on tight supplies.

    China's quarantine bureau will allow nine crushers in the country's major ****seed-growing provinces of Inner Mongolia, Jiangsu, Shandong and Zhejiang to import Canadian canola, several traders said.

    Another nine crushers outside major growing areas in the provinces of Fujian, Guangxi, Liaoning have received authorization to continue to import, they said.

    China has restricted imports of Canadian canola since 2009 and only allowed shipments to areas away from the country's major growing areas on worries over the spread of the fungal disease blackleg.

    Canada's government said canola exports to China totaled C$1.8 billion ($1.9 billion) in 2010.

    "The restriction will be relaxed but we don't expect access until the second half of the year when domestic harvest is ready," said a trading manager with an international trading house.

    #2
    Very bullish outlook at Grain World based on the pace of disappearance. No problem selling 100 % of this year crop and digging into inventory in a year of record production/close to record prices. The economic troubles highlighted in other threads and a question of how far canola can fall out of line with other vegetable oil prices are clouds on the horizon.
    Weekly ICE canola chart is below.

    [URL="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=RSH12&domain=farms&studies=Volume; &cancelstudy=&a=W"]weekly canola[/URL]
    http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=ZLH12&domain=farms&stu dies=Volume;&cancelstudy=&a=W">wee kly soybean oil</a>
    <a href="

    Comment


      #3
      Rats.

      [URL="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=ZLH12&domain=farms&studies=Volume; &cancelstudy=&a=W"]weekly soybean oil[/URL]

      Comment


        #4
        Sold my new crop way too soon.

        Comment


          #5
          Freewheat - I suspect over the next month we may see another "greek type" episode which will crater the stock market short term and probably negatively affect the commodity markets and ultimately canola. When this happens, buy a call option equal to your new crop sales and wait till the market rebounds and the affects of the drought hit the markets.

          Points to consider:
          1. I'll bet my life that stocks will have a significant crash in the next while..we've been on quite a rally and volatility is not gone.
          2. Calls get cheaper when the market is going down.
          3. If there is no drought, by the time you deliver your new crop, you'll be happy because prices will probably be lower than your locked in price.

          Bottom line, you can always lament over pulling the pin at the wrong time but whoever knows. You may still look like a genius by next fall because 20 or 21 mln acres of canola will have downward pressure on the market.

          Comment


            #6
            Can anyone really say they have made a mistake in seling $11/bu plus new crop canola (realizing $12ish/bu in many locations today)? If you are nervous, buy calls on dips to cover forward sales. Sell more so you averaging up in a rising market. Buy puts.

            [URL="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=RSX12"]November canola[/URL]

            Comment


              #7
              I did a total production contract of
              high acid back in july, Charlie. I can
              not lose at 14 bucks, but at the same
              time, as a young guy building a
              business, I hate to miss out on 16
              bucks. I have averaged 14.20 on this
              years high acid with my june contract
              yet to be priced, which will raise it
              another 10 cents or so. My point is,
              sure i have a good price locked in, but
              I could always use more money!!!

              Comment


                #8
                Marketing is a very personal thing based on a manager's business needs and risk tolerance.

                Some of the most interesting guys I have dealt with over time are farms with per acre revenue targets. They work there marketing and financial plan so they are achieving these targets consistently and achieving a return on investment. Apologize for the analogy but like the guys who aren't necessarily the long ball hitters in golf but rather the ones who can keep the ball in the center of the fairway and plan their shots to the green/pin.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Well, my targets have been attained, I know where I stand at projected yields for a certain acreage of my farm. I still hope to not leave money on the table in spite of this, and second guess myself constantly. I sort of fit the type you speak about. I just need to take comfort in where I am at!!! Mostly, I need cooperative weather. My pencil is tired of being wrong...

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Sometimes you just got to go for it charlie.

                    0% old,0%new

                    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmlwGAMpjrM

                    Comment


                      #11
                      locked in at 11 dollars,profit,happy,not
                      losing sleep.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Maybe, just maybe, when the new pipelines
                        aren't pumpin crude and bitumen in the
                        future, they could pump canolie oil. Oh
                        wait, I fergot, Comedia has no capacity to
                        crush that much stuff, never will.
                        Comedians are drawers of water and woodie
                        carvers, we don't want capacity. Sell it
                        as fast as ya kin, grabbed the cash and
                        runaway ta the bank, squirrel it......

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Those interesting guys that are talked about are the penny profit guys. Forever at the table, and can never get their fill which describes most farmers which describes why grain buyers will always be in control.

                          Sheesh, Charliep, I thought you drove for show, and putted for dough!!

                          Comment


                            #14
                            And when global monetary supply expands by a
                            factor of 3 in 4 years you should?

                            Comment


                              #15
                              drive long?
                              put short?

                              Comment

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