canola- good news

[golden1]

@ free wheat... If you have your COP
locked in, and I know you are in a wet
area, so your yeild should almost be
guaranteed, you say you have good CI
coverage,AOG contract, pluss $14 canola,
what are you worried about???I have
never sold $14 canola in 45yrs.Yes I
know your canola doesnt yeild as much as
the hibrids but here in the south we get
40-45 is a great crop 50 is a bin
buster.Hind sight is 20 20. Dont second
Guess, it will only cloud over a wise
choice you made by pricing at 14.

[bucket]

freewheat

If you are second guessing your marketing on canola, just think what it would be like if the former cwb was doing it for you. That will make you feel your decisions are pure genius.

You may also be looking a sub 10 canola by fall. Even the experts don't know.

Well done.

[malta]

My 2011 crop is all sold and hauled. Avergae price $12.05. Todays price is $13.21, am I sad. Not one bit Net per acre on canola this year was an all time record for this farm. Holding out for top price has never worked for me. As the saying goes "The bulls make money, the bears make money, and the pigs get slaughtered."

[fjlip]

If you have heard Moe Agostino at a marketing class, he is correct AGAIN this year, best historical prices are AFTER Feb, usually June 1st, 9 out of 10 years.
Darn wish I had the nerve NOT to price in Dec - Jan! The scary Greece- Euro stuff bought a lot of canola. As others say seemed right at the time.

Heard Mike Jubinvile in Wadena on Tuesday,and he admitted that he never saw the rally in Feb coming. He sold out old crop canola on Jan 3.

[agchat]

Freewheat: No exactly what you mean. I am always pissed when that price goes up and I have sold. It just hit me yesterday, now I probably will have to be pissed at myself twice as much, if I market my wheat to. It is going to be hard calling myself those names that I was calling the CWB!!!

[cottonpicken]

Selling 100% old crop today.

I don't think we will breach 600,close enough
now,and 700 is even tougher hurdle,correct down to
525 and sideways for a time.

[fjlip]

"U.S. soybean inventories before the 2013 harvest may fall 25 percent as exports climb to a record, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Feb. 24. Global reserves of the oilseed are shrinking the most in 16 years as demand for food, fuel and feed expands, according to Jefferies Bache LLC. Drought in South America caused “irreversible crop damage,” and the global harvest may decline by the most ever, Hamburg-based research company Oil World said in a report last week."

[charliep]

Won't second guess the market but experience is that when all you read is bullish news, the market quite often reverses and heads down. Market has moved higher on the news - what the next piece of news that will propel it higher?

Things I would consider.

Current crop - South American is old news and in the market.

Fight for acres in the US. The markets function is to bid planted acres away from corn and encourage more soybeans. More soybean acres that take care of the tight US new crop carryover forecast?

Weather this summer. Need a big crop in the US.

Overall world financial situation and impact on agriculture (short and medium term) and impact on demand.

[fjlip]

"New Crop Canola Acres: A record number of acres are expected, with analysts projecting between 18 and 21 million
acres. "I think 21 million acres is probably a bit high. I'm not sure if we can do that," says Marlene Boersch of
Mercantile Consulting Venture. "But we expect higher prices yet." "We should be seeing around $13.50, depending
on the area. We should also see improvements for new crop canola, because demand is there, year-to-date exports
have been phenomenal, year-to-date crush is very high and we're going to be running very, very tight with the crop."