GO CANOLA GO!!!!!

[farmaholic]

This is getting interesting.

[charliep]

My morning of charts.

My two bits and the chart.

Pay attention to basis. Strong basis equals strong demand.

Play the market in your own way but have a disciplined way to tell you when to sell. I like the idea of a trailing stop in a market that is moving higher.

[URL="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=RSK12"]May futures[/URL]

<a href="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=RSK12&domain=farms&stu dies=Volume;&cancelstudy=&a=W">wee kly</a>

<a href="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=RSX12">new crop</a>

<a href="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=ZLK12&domain=farms&stu dies=Volume;&cancelstudy=&a=W">wee kly soybean oil</a>

[farmaholic]

Where is overhead resistance Charlie? Sooner or later price is going ration demand. Where is that?

[boarderbloke]

corn is WOWing too! hope she holds

[errolanderson]

Strong technically-based fund buying this morning in the grains. Thought the USDA report was mostly neutral. Impressive U.S. job creation numbers again may be part of the spark plug. Canada job numbers were disappointing.

Interesting . . . U.S. dollar is up sharply which is normally a pressure point for grains. Cattle board under heavy selling pressure today.

Big volatility straight ahead.

[farmaholic]

Domestic canola crush margins eroding.

[errolanderson]

Guys . . . if this market actually turns
lower today, it might get ugly as these
markets are heavily overbought. Will be an
interesting finish today.

[charliep]

As cottonpicken highlighted before (if remember), $600 is a pretty key point. Note Errol's comment. Markets very rarely post increases over an extended period of time without a break/some form of correction. A market rally today with a lower close is something that needs to be paid attention to (if occurs in canola or soybeans/its components).

[charliep]

Watch basis as well. Basis staying strong is a symbol of one thing. Grain companies/crushers taking protection (read weaker basis) is likely a sign of something else.

[charliep]

You mentioned crush margins. Below are the current COPA numbers.

[URL="http://www.copaonline.net/documents/COPAWEEKLYMARCH72012.pdf"]COPA[/URL]

At 4 MMT crush to the end of week 31, Canada is more or less on target to hit 7 MMT domestic processing.

Week 31 CGC numbers are out yet. Export pace can best be described as amazing.

[farmaholic]

Viterra July grain pricing order triggered at $13.50 ( $5.80 basis) but still a little off the strike price with the $586.60 (highest traded)=$13.44/bu.

[charliep]

[URL="http://www.grainscanada.gc.ca/statistics-statistiques/gsw-shg/2011-12/week-semaine-31/gsw-shg-01-eng.htm"]week 31[/URL]

[ColevilleH2S]

Wow big numbers. Is there going to be anything left come June/July?

[SASKFARMER3]

Most farmers in our area are right out of
Canola or just bin bottoms. SELL SELL SELL
thats what the experts said last fall. BIG
CROP IN SA. YEA!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[farmaholic]

We have to allow the experts to be wrong, they base their opinions on what is happening at the time and a bit of crystal ball gazing. As we all know hindsight is 20/20. I wouldn't want to be an analyst making predictions.
As a producer, make profitable sales to cover expenses or cashflow needs, if you want to gamble on the rest do what the analyst does and compile information, look into the crystal ball, and make your best guess. Good luck!!