Feed Barley Closing in on Malt

[errolanderson]

Big jump in central and southern Alberta
feedlot delivered barley bids. Calgary
to Lethbridge feeders bidding $225 to
$230/MT for late winter/early spring.
Buyers losing the feed market poker game
right now. Growers are in the drivers
seat and feeders may be at risk of
losses this year as the cattle board has
technically broken.

But new crop malt market remains quite
weak. This appears to be an excellent
pricing feed barley pricing opportunity.
Once feeders get covered, bids are apt
to fall back . . . but that may be a few
weeks from now.

Errol

[charliep]

What are you get offered for new crop malt barley? Specifications? Act of god?

I from one am not sure what the new street malt programs for ______ (likely China) will look like. Over the past 5 years, western Canada has had anywhere from 5 million tonnes of exception malt barley to 1 million tonnes of suspect stuff. The main difference between a street malt program is the ability to blend versus a maltster direct, container or rail car direct which is identitied preserved to the customer based on attributes.

[GreenValley]

Metacalf barley was rejected from Rahr Malt due high protein. Viterra do interest this barley and offer for 5.30/bus for reject malt barley. I do believe reject barley maybe go to #2 or #3 malt barley which is China interesting in this. But told them already sold it before they called us. Dang, but next time, learn lesson from new market.

[charliep]

I should comment that even in a street malt program, malt barley will have different values based on performance in the malt house (consistency of germination, malt yield, time to germinate, starch content, enzymes, etc., etc. etc.). There will be more need for the whole supply chain to understand what provides malt processors and brewers value and price accordingly. Poor quality/low price does not always equal good value for the malt processor or brewer if it doesn't perform well in making beer or the type of beer consumers want. Even in China, there is more than one type of beer drinker.

[Burbert]

Me thinks that all are terrified that
Comedian framers will give up on growin
malt, due to all the current cornfusion in
the market. Canolie, wheatie rotatin is
alls mosts is interested in. Why even
bother wit barely? Where are the malty
companies anyways, they've screwed us
sooooo much in the past theys seem ta be
hidin!!!! Where are their lofty high
prices they was promising us all?????

[BTO_farmall]

Burbert, Don't think it Really Matters, Comedian Farmers Like, NO, Theys LOVE Gettin Screwed!!!!!!!!! Everyone Seem to Talk to Says, Malt, Canolie, Malt, Canolie, Malt, Canolie Thats What yous'll See Across The Prairies This Year, Malt, Canolie, Malt, Canolie, Malt, Canolie.........

[wd9]

Gawd, Like Statler and Waldorf, only illiterate.

[blackpowder]

@ $4.84 new crop malt from my local CanadaMalt. Message I feel is "they don't need half of us anyway".

[blackpowder]

Errol: Whats your take on new crop malt prices? $/bu. central AB

[errolanderson]

Blackpowder . . . Global malt market is
extremely weak right now. There may not
be an improvement for some time, but (in
my opinion), new crop malt barley prices
are just too low.

Feed prices have basically caught up
with malt. Maybe there are some malt
buyers out there that would want to join
in on this conversation.

Hopefully there will be a development of
a low quality malt barley market to
China. Our barley market would then have
3 key sectors . . . feed, low average
malt (lower specs) and top quality malt
barley.

I'm quite disappointed with the current
price levels for top quality Cdn malt
barley.

Errol

[Burbert]

Quite disappointed is a phrase that all
are hearing a lot these days. The
Comedian grain industry DOESN'T KNOW what
the f is goin on either. Maybe somebody
should hunt up the CRACKER in Ottawa and
see ifn he'll invest in ostriches agin ta
save us all. Canolie is King is the only
thing that makes any money this season
duhhhhhhhhhhhh!

[charliep]

I would have to look at all the terms of the contract including whether includes an act of god clause, quality specifications/wiggle factor and commitments as to when can be delivered into the system before I could ask whether $4.85/bu is good, bad or indifferent.

You put your own numbers in but is 70 malt barley crop at $5/bu, an act of god clause and reasonable chance of selection based on quality specifications/your history necessarily a bad thing. Your alternative may be an 80 bu/acre feed barley crop sold at $4/bu. Everyone has to run their own numbers.

With cooperation from Mother nature (unknown at this point), 2012 is shaping up to be a pretty good year even with a slight reduction in prices from 2011 - my two bits.

[charliep]

For what it is worth, canola's success is being pulled forward by the demand side. To Errol's initial idea, increased domestic feed booking during road ban season and seeding is pushing feed barley prices higher (summer will present a different situation). Malt is seeing this at the current time - domestic side has supplies booked. Export side is getting covered out of Australia.

Do you book malt sales now - I might be patient but you are likely chasing the export side (domestic maltsters are likely covered well into next winter or farther).

[Burbert]

Malt market is totally bulls-t based.
Everythin is up fer grabs at all times it
seems. Butt really who gives a sh-t,
canolie shines! Don't it?

[hobbyfrmr]

Run the numbers feed vs. malt for sure. I havebeen intermittently successful at growing malt barley. I blame that on the maltsters, I would carry the barley until spring, miss the winter feed rallies, then they would call for it during road bans, or reject for some reason or another. I hate that game.
I have learned that a good feed barley price is much easier to cash flow than malt. I know its less money, but it is predictable. Maltsters can go pound sand.
I do have neighbors who have been consistent malt for about 15 years. They can do no wrong, I have seem some of the 2 inches rained on dogshit and also beautiful malt samples they sold for malt. They are in great favour of the CWB and so this is where we have some disagreement. We are still neighbors and help each other when necessary. They will miss the CWB, I will not...we will both be farming next year.