Feed Barley Closing in on Malt

[Burbert]

Quite disappointed is a phrase that all
are hearing a lot these days. The
Comedian grain industry DOESN'T KNOW what
the f is goin on either. Maybe somebody
should hunt up the CRACKER in Ottawa and
see ifn he'll invest in ostriches agin ta
save us all. Canolie is King is the only
thing that makes any money this season
duhhhhhhhhhhhh!

[charliep]

I would have to look at all the terms of the contract including whether includes an act of god clause, quality specifications/wiggle factor and commitments as to when can be delivered into the system before I could ask whether $4.85/bu is good, bad or indifferent.

You put your own numbers in but is 70 malt barley crop at $5/bu, an act of god clause and reasonable chance of selection based on quality specifications/your history necessarily a bad thing. Your alternative may be an 80 bu/acre feed barley crop sold at $4/bu. Everyone has to run their own numbers.

With cooperation from Mother nature (unknown at this point), 2012 is shaping up to be a pretty good year even with a slight reduction in prices from 2011 - my two bits.

[charliep]

For what it is worth, canola's success is being pulled forward by the demand side. To Errol's initial idea, increased domestic feed booking during road ban season and seeding is pushing feed barley prices higher (summer will present a different situation). Malt is seeing this at the current time - domestic side has supplies booked. Export side is getting covered out of Australia.

Do you book malt sales now - I might be patient but you are likely chasing the export side (domestic maltsters are likely covered well into next winter or farther).

[Burbert]

Malt market is totally bulls-t based.
Everythin is up fer grabs at all times it
seems. Butt really who gives a sh-t,
canolie shines! Don't it?

[hobbyfrmr]

Run the numbers feed vs. malt for sure. I havebeen intermittently successful at growing malt barley. I blame that on the maltsters, I would carry the barley until spring, miss the winter feed rallies, then they would call for it during road bans, or reject for some reason or another. I hate that game.
I have learned that a good feed barley price is much easier to cash flow than malt. I know its less money, but it is predictable. Maltsters can go pound sand.
I do have neighbors who have been consistent malt for about 15 years. They can do no wrong, I have seem some of the 2 inches rained on dogshit and also beautiful malt samples they sold for malt. They are in great favour of the CWB and so this is where we have some disagreement. We are still neighbors and help each other when necessary. They will miss the CWB, I will not...we will both be farming next year.

[charliep]

Just curious what has changed. Selection process the
same. Contract terms the same except only 2
signatories this time (no CWB). Buyers the same.
Same delivery locations

New world. Offered $4.84/bu. You can make a
decision based on the price and your
relationship/level of trust with the selector.

Old world. First PRO in February - a forecast and not
a price. Malt cash plus - 90 % of the price paid the
maltster ($4.50/bu if assume $5/bu). You get paid
35 cents in a final payout. No change to anything
else.

[errolanderson]

hobbyfrmr . . . I agree with you
totally. The grower takes on too much
risk to satisfy the maltster. The price
is far too low to compensate for this
marketing risk.
Too often, growers miss out on a hot
feed market only to see a sample
rejected.

And this is a hot feed market right now
that currently has a shelflife on it. I
would suggest to growers that are
uncertain about their malt to move it
into the feed market ASAP. Not worth the
market risk at times.

Errol