Ok Canola Basis is Zero In Eastern Sask, Are all the Bins Empty

[charliep]

Issues in South are the reason we have mid $13/bu soybean futures, 55 cent/lb soyoil and $600/tonne canola. Still discussion about how big the crop but I think old news. China has been stepping up to the plate to get covered over the remainder of 2012 but they are finnicky at best and will eventually get covered to the point they want. At some point you are going to hit a demand vacuum.

You pays your money and takes your chances. BTO says he can sell at the top. Just curious how anyone knows where the top is. I'm interested in the mechanics of making money in a farm business with marketing one of the tools.

[errolanderson]

Technically, canola and soybeans are
heavily overbought. Ironically, at this
market blow-off stage, it will now take a
price drop to encourage farm pricing and
deliveries.

Errol

[SASKFARMER3]

Boys "Charlie and Errol" I said I had a plan, yes
the market is now priced in for SA. But all winter I
heard its a big crop. Canada on paper right now
will have a huge crop. Oh yea all of western
Canada won't seed for another 30 days and 18
above today, long time to dry out the ground if the
weather patern holds. You can't seed boys today
and hope to get a crop. Yes you can't always get
the top but if you always leave your self tight on
your margins and believe all the hypebynow BS,
yea you'll be long sold.
Are not western Canadian farmers bins empty?

[SASKFARMER3]

Also I don't believe that canola will get to 744 for a
long while. Stats can will Screw that up along with
the head. In the sand guys who aren't looking at
the weather. It's dry boys. Truckers in line from all
way to Edmonton to winter peg it's the same no
snow, windy and dry.

[Hopperbin]

Sask. What are them guys at Foam Lake paying for your 02 shit. I have some also but could never deal with them guys. And how do they determine price? Do they have a declining scale on oil content? Basis etc.?

[Hopperbin]

Errol 0 basis works out to 13.60 per bushel. Why would a farmer not sell and clean out his bins? Which I would think is being done. My last 5000 bushels after my contracted delivery will be delivered hopefully this March. After that they can put the price up all they want, I have none.

[Burbert]

The good times are hear. With the demise
of the cwb, its all good from now on.
Wowsers you boys/girls was right. That
pimple cracker has done good fer framing.
Whoda thunk it????????? Might be a bit of
a bubble though to. Attempt ta buy Spring
acres, that goes on EACH and every year in
Comedia, butt wes kin all hope its a
glimpse inta the futurera Comedian gag...

[SASKFARMER3]

Also I don't believe that canola will get to 744 for a
long while. Stats can will Screw that up along with
the head. In the sand guys who aren't looking at
the weather. It's dry boys. Truckers in line from all
way to Edmonton to winter peg it's the same no
snow, windy and dry.

[mbratrud]

As a Farmer who has plenty of skin in the game just ask my banker, and a consultant. 6 weeks ago I wish I would have just gone with the fundementals on Canola and I would have still had some old crop. Instead I decided to manage my risk and sell the last of my old crop I averaged about $12.30 a bushel for the year. My biggest worry was what was coming next year, and this is a selling oportunity I could have never dreamed of. To all of you who simply lucked out if you are selling at the high, you should thank me because I sold earlier to provide you with this oportunity. Don't send flowers just money. I blame Cotton for my Jan sales because he freaked me out with the BDI discussion back then. LOL Anyways lets enjoy the ride and not forget to lock in some profits.

[charliep]

Actually a good review of market information in the past and future. The same pattern of information repeats itself every year (at in the 25 years of doing this stuff). It nuances like South American weather, China demand, canola acres this spring, etc., etc, etc that make things fun and keeps life interesting. If it wasn't fun, I would likely be doing something else - won't you be? If this causes you too much stress, continue to grow CWB grains and use their services. They may expand to other crops.

[SASKFARMER3]

Sitting waiting, waitin, waiting. This shitbased on
today's price equals 10.06 it's not nice looking
shit.

[SASKFARMER3]

Sitting waiting, waitin, waiting. This shitbased on
today's price equals 10.06 it's not nice looking
shit.