And now for something completely different

[ColevilleH2S]

With all of the Viterra talk on this board, another story got missed. Canola dropped over $10 a tonne today! It seems the Saudis decided to open up valves and lower oil prices. Any comments?

This morning my wife and I decided to price another 40 tonnes. I got busy with other things and never got around to it. Well, now all I hear in my head is The Guess Who song, No sugar tonight ;-)

[dalek]

Are you really suggesting on a public interweb site
that sugar in your house is only worth $400?

;-)

[cottonpicken]

You did the right the right thing.

590 is bottom trend line,we bounce and clear 600 we are good.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nPqT031SWT4

[bgmb]

seriously cp, I got scared into selling a good piece of my old crop this am when she opened down.

I've been teased too many times....

I see we opened up a bit tonight.

[bgmb]

one thing about being a farmer, you are always long......

[ColevilleH2S]

dalek. haha

Sugar is worth what momma says it's worth. No free market economics in this house ;-)

[errolanderson]

In my opinion, cash canola bids are now at
high risk of a pullback. Should May
technicals break, 1st support seen at
$565/MT. That would suggest cash bids may
be at risk of a 70 cent/bu setback.

Errol

[cottonpicken]

One aspect about using technicals for selling is to
take the emotion out of it.

If we do break lower,then a few days ago was the
absolute best time to sell but....if we break trend and
then you sell you have in fact got very close to the top
rather than just selling a few weeks ago based on no
real logic.

The catch of course is the insane amount of study you
have to do on it,and if you think using the bar chart
cheat sheet will help you,your screwed.

[bucket]

Errol said

posted Mar 16, 2012 13:57
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Technically, canola and soybeans are
heavily overbought. Ironically, at this
market blow-off stage, it will now take a
price drop to encourage farm pricing and
deliveries.



So if it drops off how much demand picks up and how much shorter does that leave suppy by mid June?

[errolanderson]

Demand may not pick up over a lower
price. The battle for old crop canola
supplies may just occur at a lower price
point heading into crop year end.

To me, the current rally in canola was
way overdone, but offers a tremendous
pricing opportunity for growers, for
both old and new crop canola. Commodity
funds (speculators) are key to this huge
recent rise. Crushers were forced to
follow this wave.

Soybean prices remain heavily
overbought. Wheat and corn are under
pressure. Canola is not an island on-to-
itself. Old crop canola supplies are
snug, but the market does and will
adjust.

Also, China woes are just the beginning
of problems in Asia. This brewing issue
is an overall pressure point for
commodity prices into remainder of 2012
and into 2013.

Errol

[bucket]

Errol

Judging by soybeans, canola may turn back positive, does it blow through 600 or just stay flat for a while?

[errolanderson]

Markets can do anything, but given the
setback in canola yesterday, $600/MT
becomes a tough resistance zone to
break.

If funds lose confidence, canola could
slip another $20/MT quickly. The ball is
in their court, but technicals scream
overbought right now. Canola needs fresh
bullish news soon or market is at risk
of failure. Malaysian palm oil peak is
also likely in.

Errol