Strong finish!!

[furrowtickler]

Good to see continued strength, and a solid friday close...again.

[bucket]

Yeah, after reading some of these so called experts comments on other threads,I targetted some canola yesterday only to have the target trigger before I woke up this morning.

You can thank me later. Its probably going to put in a good rally next week.

Still have some to sell, but will be looking for that 13.75 to 14 dollar range.

[cottonpicken]

Great day across the board buying,the us dollars
days of being number 1arecoming to an end

[bucket]

Maybe the USD won't be the preferred currency but as long as the US has grain for sale, it puts them in a pretty good spot.

The chinese have been massaging their production numbers for years but reality may be hitting them in the face with the current pace of grain imports into that country. And making sure a billion people don't get angry because they are hungry is an important job.

[cottonpicken]

The entire globe uses dollars for settelments,trade
and reserve this creates demand.when that
demand goes away you will see a huge drop in
purchasing power and all hard assets will sky
rocket in value as those recycle back home.

[TOM4CWB]

Cotton,

The USD has served the Chinese VERY VERY well!

Why would they stop using the US$ now... when they have been so successful at buying up resources around the globe... with comparatively little resistance?

Isn't this really what China wants?

Even India has done well... the Ruppe has depreciated against the US$ 20 percent in the past 8 months.

The EU Euro is unlikely to be the winner with all the enviro bubble debt problems they are sitting on!

It is obvious Keystone is going ahead... Obama is just being coy; his political tactics will very likely work!

[BTO_farmall]

Long Live King Dollar.

[cottonpicken]

Their paper holdings of u s debt have been
depreciating at an alarming rate compared to a
basket of tangibles.a report out of general mills
says there costs are inflating at 10-11percent.

Many reports are saying they are quietly selling
and not buying sny treasuries at all.of course all
info today is now suspisious.

Many reports of false usda numbers,so we
shouldnt condem china to bad when we ourselves
are fudging so man numbers.

We know are lokking at a free trade deal with
tawain.what the hell does hat mean in regards to
china?

Last time i heard 'formosa' was going to be
chinese again come hell or high water.

Hopefully the world is so interconnected through
large corporations and trade and facebook and
mtv that common good will now always prevail.

Because trade blocks and trade wars would
shirley suck.

Ever imagine a scenario where you never seen
made in china on anything and anything we
produce. Never goes overseas?

[charliep]

Selling close to $14/bu canola should never be a bad thing. The only fish that really counts is the one you pull out of the water and enjoy at supper that night. All the rest are just fisherman's stories.

If you really think this market has more legs, get long futures or buy calls.

Chart for your review. Note the May/July inverse. Basis is looking after some of this but I would watch this component as well.

[URL="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=quote&sym=RSK12&mode=i"]ICE canola futures[/URL]

<a href="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=RSN12">July chart</a>

<a href="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=ZLN12">July CBOT soybean oil</a>

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

We don't need to buy futures... we grow it!

[charliep]

You are right. The conversation should be about whether $12/bu is a good place to lock in new crop.

A conference call this past week highlighted the strange difference in fundamentals between old and new
crop corn/soybean. US corn is extremely tight old crop carryover but supplies look adequate to surplus
new crop. Soybeans supplies are adequate old crop (yes even with the problems in South America) but
have potential to be tight new crop. The USDA seeding intentions report will be an important one and
from there actual seeded acres. Looks like an early start to seeding in the US as well which will favor corn.
Note the inverse in corn futures.

[URL="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=quote&sym=ZCK12&mode=i"]CBOT Corn Futures[/URL]

[bucket]

Just read Weber's canola buddy. One interesting comment was about rationing happening sooner than later or we will be on fumes by mid June.

How do you ration something that is not there???

I have talked to alot of farmers that their bins are empty or at the least, priced.

[bucket]

And if rationing doesn't take place that will eventually lead to a shortfall in mid august while they are waiting for new crop.

So if they are forced to shut down plants it gets more expensive than buying 15 buck canola.

[charliep]

You may be right. If you want to be a speculator, get
long futures. Only 10 % down and you're in the
game. You will learn very fast about the impact of
leverage if you haven't already.

How far can canola prices get of line with soybean oil?
What impact will $15/bu canola have on canola acres?
Realize everyone will play the weather trump card but
$13/bu new crop canola will push everyone to take
risk they won't other wise. An early spring will likely
see August delivery (other things equal).

At this point, my recommendations are not based on
the idea I can forecast the future. They are based on
the idea I can't forecast the future and am taking
some steps to manage my price risk (protect against
pain but give up gain). Old crop conversation is
simply an arguement about who is the best
speculator.

The markets function is to put buyers and sellers
together to trade physical supplies so farmers can
pay bills and crushers can keep their plants busy
meeting the needs of consumers. The market has
preformed very well when you look at volume of
deliveries and record export/crush pace.

[bucket]

But what happens when the physical isn't there? Just because it says it is on paper doesn't make it true.