Canola this A.M.

[farmaholic]

WOW! All I can say is I wish I had more to sell(physicals). I still don't think I did too bad though. Almost 100% priced , but 0% delivered. I might recalculate(maybe my dockage got less over winter,lol) and determine if I can price a hair more, just to day I got this current price. Bragging rights.

[charliep]

Does anyone want to take on the bet there is more canola out there than everyone thinks. I will be watching the March 31 stocks report and for sure the July 31 one. I will bet end the end stocks report shows a pretty major negative waste and dockage - an indication that the 2011 canola crop was underestimated. Deliveries to date have been nothing short of phenominal with no signs of slowing. Lots of you seem to be rubbing your hands with glee on the prospects of selling canola for higher prices (i.e. still have canola in the bin) and suspect some of your neighbors are in the same situation. There is a difference between no canola in the bin and bins with canola/locks on the door/high target prices. I would also look at the new crop/old crop inverse and basis levels.

[charliep]

Coffee time today suggested a pickup in canola theft. Pretty easy $25,000 for someone to pick a load of canola for one hours work. You may even be supplying the loader.

[charliep]

This week's grain statistics weekly. Deliveries 11.25 MMT versus 8.8 MMT last year and a 14 MMT crop. Week 34 so 18 weeks remaining in the crop year.

[URL="http://www.grainscanada.gc.ca/statistics-statistiques/gsw-shg/2011-12/week-semaine-34/gsw-shg-01-eng.htm"]Week 34[/URL]

[SASKFARMER3]

Charlie I think your going to be surprised. The
bins are empty.
Or they will shortly.
Here is some news, seems some crushers in
Yorkton might have a summer holiday for staff.
Hm yea their is lots of canola in the bins.

[mcfarms]

With a very strong local basis can sell July Canola @ 14.47 as of now oink oink oink.

[charliep]

Extremely strong close today. Also can read the numbers and look at the charts just like everyone else. In some sense (will get killed) I would like to see a correction and the makings of another leg higher. We are in for some interesting times. Fun to be talking about markets versus other things.

[fjlip]

"Deliveries 11.25 MMT", and priced still to deliver.
I'd say not much left unpriced.
Same thing happened in the 80's when canola hit $16.
Bins were all emptied for $6-8.

[charliep]

Similar to certain medications advertised on TV that warn about firmness that lasts for more than 4 hours, I always worry about markets that are going close to straight up. Demand destruction/buyers shifting to other commodities and signals to grow a lot more (realizing Mother Nature has to cooperate).

[fjlip]

"Deliveries 11.25 MMT", and priced still to deliver.
I'd say not much left unpriced.
Same thing happened in the 80's when canola hit $16.
Bins were all emptied for $6-8.

[charliep]

Similar to certain medications advertised on TV that warn about firmness that lasts for more than 4 hours, I always worry about markets that are going close to straight up. Demand destruction/buyers shifting to other commodities and signals to grow a lot more (realizing Mother Nature has to cooperate).

[errolanderson]

For those scaling in fall floor price
protection over and above DDC contracts,
this rally continues to offer higher 'n
higher canola floor prices.

Nov canola $550 puts today traded for
$18/MT today, Nov $560 put @ $23.50 and
Nov $570 puts @ $27.50/MT

If rally continues on Monday, Nov $570
puts may trade for $25. Example: $570
strike - $25 premium = $545/MT
plus or minus your fall delivered basis.

Errol