Canola this A.M.

[wd9]

Errol, what is gonna be the cash price for
canola next year this time?

[errolanderson]

wd9 . . Have no idea where canola will
be next year at this time. My sense of
the market now is commodity fund buying
is ruling 'king' right now.

There is a wall of money that has
shifted from the Dot.com (2000 era) then
went bust, then flowed into the subprime
mortgage fiasco (remember Phoenix houses
for interest only mortgages in 2005)
then went bust, then the money flowed
into commodities.

To me, this is why we are witnessing
these crazed market swings over the past
5 or so years, funds in, funds out.

Here'e an opinion (and throw it out with
the wash) . . . . $14/bu soybeans don't
have a long shelflife. Maybe beans will
explode toward $16/bu on fund buying,
but that would last about as long as a
Calgary Flames winning streak.

Cash canola prices may swing between a
possible low of $10/bu to possible high
$15/bu if the beans go nuts in the
nearterm. This is a blow-off top, but
where's the top?

Sunday . . . China will announce if they
will increase interest rates or not.
This will impact canola Monday morning.
Stock markets will be real happy Monday
or possibly real sad.

Big canola price swings seen ahead.

Errol

[fjlip]

And new crop after June, weather will be a constant driver, up or down if stocks of soy-canola are so low.
A less than ideal yield would be wild prices, IMHO.
Hope the prairies get a descent crop and no crazy weather.

[cottonpicken]

The nagging thing in my head about beans/canola is
that they didn't previously spike high enough.

Corn wheat oil made themselves more reasonable
trading ranges.