Canola this A.M.

[furrowtickler]

Up big after a slight stumble. Could be interesting day.

[SASKFARMER3]

Y E A !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
THANK YOU USDA!!!
THANK "YOU "BRAZIL
THANK YOU CHINA
To all the guys who said SELL SELL SELL.
Have a great day!

[wd9]

So i will try to ask again, how would
effective marketing have protected me from
selling for less 2 months ago?

[bucket]

Errol should be able to answer all your questions.

But he might have a some margin calls to be telling his clients about, this morning.

[FarmRanger]

No margin calls on a Put. I hope mine expire
worthless.
I might just "waste" some more money on them if
this rally continues.

[charliep]

Nobody gets to brag until they pull the trigger and sell. The belief here is that a farmer should be able to sell every kernel of their crop at the top of the market. Crushing plants only need to buy once at year (high price naturally). Cattle feeders only buy once a year.

The market is a dynamic place that puts buyers and sellers together. It reacts to information. I don't think there was anything surprising in the report. Still an intentions report and farmers will shift acres to reflect the new reality (early seeding will have some impact). I would watch the close carefully today. Buy the rumor/sell the fact? The market have not locked limit and have been trading all morning (or at least in the first half hour). The market will be the ultimate judge with only 3 1/2 hours to be judged.

[charliep]

My eyes would be on new crop by the way. Cottonpicken quite accurately highlighted the trend is your friend (he had a different expression but the same meaning). Definitely the ever ready bunny. I suspect this market will not go up for ever and at some point will break. The question is when. I would running a trailing stop.

[URL="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=RSX12"]November[/URL]

[wd9]

Point is Charlie, if we were 'Good'
marketers, it would all be sold already.

[fjlip]

Most are "good " marketers because very little is unpriced.
The poor or greedy marketer not selling at a profit, being a "pig", did not get slaughtered, is laughing all the way to the bank.
Impossible to learn from this mistake.
We all made a profit though, so hope for a good crop to play the game again.

[charliep]

wd9

I'm not sure what a definition of good marketer is. Everyone here faces different financial realities.

My definition of a good marketer isn't one truck load or one year. It is a farmer that is consistently profitable over 5 to 10 years, pays bills on time and grows their businesses equity while providing a good life style for their family and when they do their evaluation of the marketing compontent of their business (weighted average price versus some benchmark), they have consistently priced above the average level.

As Errol said, marketing is as much an art as a science. It is also driven by the financial realities of their business. Someone with 95 % plus equity (likely well over $2 million) can pretty much do anything they want.

For anybody that tells me they knew this was going to happen, why weren't you long futures as a replacement strategy this past 3 months. Bragging is putting money in the banck - not yelling at everyone in Agriville.

[cottonpicken]

We can all agree its great news.

Sweet baby jesus,time to say a prayer and be thankful

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuAUI_0knfk

Shake and bake

[furrowtickler]

Yuup, Time to start biddin - cotton's got the idea... Also canola stocks will be tighter then last forecast.

[farmaholic]

WOW! All I can say is I wish I had more to sell(physicals). I still don't think I did too bad though. Almost 100% priced , but 0% delivered. I might recalculate(maybe my dockage got less over winter,lol) and determine if I can price a hair more, just to day I got this current price. Bragging rights.

[charliep]

Does anyone want to take on the bet there is more canola out there than everyone thinks. I will be watching the March 31 stocks report and for sure the July 31 one. I will bet end the end stocks report shows a pretty major negative waste and dockage - an indication that the 2011 canola crop was underestimated. Deliveries to date have been nothing short of phenominal with no signs of slowing. Lots of you seem to be rubbing your hands with glee on the prospects of selling canola for higher prices (i.e. still have canola in the bin) and suspect some of your neighbors are in the same situation. There is a difference between no canola in the bin and bins with canola/locks on the door/high target prices. I would also look at the new crop/old crop inverse and basis levels.

[charliep]

Coffee time today suggested a pickup in canola theft. Pretty easy $25,000 for someone to pick a load of canola for one hours work. You may even be supplying the loader.