Canola

[bucket]

China is buying corn right now because the domestic price is too high. They are short. If they didn't grow much corn there is a better than likely chance they grew even less soybeans.

Prices drop, demand grows and it only creates further lower prices if production ramps up. At this time, not looking so good for above trendline yields.

[charliep]

For what it is worth, Informa Economics
puts South American soybean production
at 116 MMT, down about 20 MMT from the
starting forecasts last fall. Both
Brazil and Argentina active sellers to
pocket current $14/but prices and the
inverse.

[bucket]

And those prices may not be high enough to ration if production falls short somewhere else.

Other questions:

1. What is the current European ****seed crop conditions?

2. How is the forecast for western canada for the next three months?

[Kodiak]

Last reported price of soybeans in China that I read was $19-20/ bushel. Perhaps this is bad information????


However, if it is correct, would they wash purchases from USA or SA which were done at $15ish FOB? This wouldn't make sense.

What am I missing?

[charliep]

You are encouraged likely right term. A
buyer that represents 60 percent can do
what they want however. If China gets
into economic trouble, will soybeans,
canola and vegetable oils be a necessity
or luxury?

[charliep]

Hate blackberry functions that put in
strange words with spell check.

Point was can't argue with the trend in
prices. The question is when will the
market stop taking the stairs up and the
elevator down. China will be a major
factor in the reversal with its own
economic woes a driver.

[charliep]

From my review of newsletters I get,
China has been an active buyer of new
crop soybeans in respect of concerns
about US acres and uncertainty about
yield. A weather and yield concern
premium is in this market.

Would be interesting to know the landed
US soybean price in China. $15/but at
the Gulf. Don't have a good source of
internal Chinese soybean prices.