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Does Canola have a little more room to advance or will Stats Canada Kill the Bull!

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    Does Canola have a little more room to advance or will Stats Canada Kill the Bull!

    Oil World estimates world soybean
    production at only 240 million tonnes in
    2011/12, an unprecedented decline by 25
    million tonnes from last year. It says
    that for the first time the world market
    is faced with a decline of soybean
    production in both North America (down 7
    million tonnes) and South America (down
    19 million tonnes) in the same season.
    Conab- Brazil soy 65.6 mmt HM!
    Northern Argentina is suffering a severe
    and widespread drought. Rainfall was
    below normal throughout the season
    coarse grain, with many areas where the
    water deficit was particularly severe.
    This situation will lead to many cases
    of regular or low yields in soybean and
    corn, with very few crops in a position
    favorable. The affected area includes
    large areas of Tucumán, Salta,
    Catamarca, Jujuy, Santiago del Estero
    and Chaco. These provinces produce about
    6.7 million tons of soybeans (13% of
    total) and 3 million tons of corn(11%).
    Oh but wait Stats Canada the farmers
    favorite useless AG stat department will
    come out in two weeks with a seeded area
    the sise of saskatchewan to Canola and
    the markets will tank.
    Why is seed still available if every one
    is growing canola. YEs sulfer is in
    short supply but the seed is needed
    before fert.
    Time will tell.
    My guess is 20.1 Area to low of 18.9
    Whats are others thinking.
    On up side 16 is potential top. its
    coming as bins are empty!!!!!!!!!

    #2
    Statscan may have more of an impact on basis levels than anything but I think the Market is already expecting 21 - 22Mil acres an extra million or 2 probably wouldnt even change things. Likely more of an impact if the acreage was much below 21. JMHO

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