New Crop Canola Needle Top?

[tipsy]

correction should be 2011/12 crop not 2010/11.

[cottonpicken]

Resistance is 14.50 in beans.

[errolanderson]

crusher . . . we have been purchasing
November 570 puts fairly aggressively
between $20 to $22/MT.

$570 strike - $21 premium = $549/MT
($12.45/bu) plus or minus your fall
delivered basis.

[charliep]

I'll add basis into the discussion. Someone told there are companies offering overs (premium to futures) for new crop. New crop basis contracts versus historical levels? Sell futures on the current rally (you pick your timing) and buy calls on dips.

[errolanderson]

Charlie - Nov basis heard between $10
under to $10 over for early fall
delivery. That's remarkable for harvest
movement.

Strong Futures Strong Basis = Sell the
cash signal.

To me, growers may want to sign DDC
contracts (10 to 30%) of expected
production and then consider scaling in
puts and hope they expire worthless. But
if they don't expire, you will be glad
to own the protection.

Errol