Just wondering?

[SASKFARMER3]

rhof AH you must have not been around a
few years ago when Ngas was sky rocketing
and all the fert companies said we have to
pass on the cost to customers even if the
price of grain is in the tank. It never
went down. Their crooks. Sorry! but thats
the truth!

[Choice2U]

I guess I am not so gullible as to believe that the Agriums of the world have my best interests at heart and will never tell their version of the truth...I think it's called marketing. Many a time in the past, the price of N fertilizer and the price of N gas had nothing to do with each other so why would they now. It's all about supply and demand around each plant. Consider the analogy of a "pie" with the fertilizer plant in the middle assuming equal freight outward. The major competition to Agrium is product coming in through New Orleans. In high world demand, there is less off-shore product that moves into the US gulf so the likes of Yara and Koch move more product south (their "pie" moves south so there is less competition with Agrium). When there is more product coming in through the US gulf and that area becomes more competitive, the Yaras and Kochs have to move their pie north which increases competition with Agrium's plants in Canada. Therefore, be aware of world product supply, shipping rates, floods or low levels on the Mississippi which can affect barge traffic to Minneapolis (an unload point), hurricanes which can affect US gulf unloading points, avoid buying just before spring, etc. Agrium has a strong hold on in-season Canadian market share (including N but especially P & AS). I am concerned about Agrium's market share, therefore, I will be dealing with other companies and independents which buy from multiple sources. Also, I will make sure my fertilizer storage requirements are adequate so I can buy out of season when I think the price will be the best. With that being said, some day the price might be the best just before spring just like delivering off the combine has been the right decision at times. Just imagine what it would be like today if Devine's Gov't and Cargill had not teamed up to form Saskferco in the 80's.

[oliver990]

isn't it correct that some of the CPS aquisitions are a result of unpaid bills owed to Agrium? Not saying in all cases but it has happened.

[haveapulse]

Choice2U your case in point of how a political decison in the 80s impacts for generations. Therefore we should carefully consider the playing field we leave for the future, today.

Healthy capitalism is based in competition, and shared markets are essential for competition. While we can agree that having adequate storeage and timing may find a beneficial position in a price graph, ultimately competition defines the percentage of the margin, and what the market can bear capitalism has a range which extends into pure feudalism.

I have heard varying numbers does anyone know what % of inputs Agrium controls, in addition to the independents they supply?

[rhoff]

High or low natural gas agrium will sell urea for as
high as the market will allow it to. Why would any
farmer/business person expect anything else?
Why do farmers get offended at companies that
operate on the same principals as they do. It's
called free market capitalism and yes sometimes
people and business's other than you might
benefit from it. Instead of fretting about inflated
land values buy shares in agrium or cf.

[haveapulse]

Yes, and the opportunity to price fix comes once every decade or so to a group of farmers: price of Canola, thank you very much. As opposed to the 75$ rise in N prices one day this week. While it is the same opportunity in a technical sense, the ratio of opportunity is variable with the number of players. 2 is way more fun!