Heads up Ammonia going up BIG!!!!!!!!

[LWeber]

CF announces additional suspensions

Additional nitrogen supply curtailments were announced by CF Industries Holdings Inc. on April 17. CF notified customers on Tuesday that is was unable to load urea at its Inola, Okla., warehouse due to an interruption in supply availability. CF said the interruption was effective immediately and would last until further notice.

CF also alerted customers on April 17 that the company's Verdigris, Okla., plant would not be loading anhydrous ammonia trucks until further notice, again citing an "interruption in supply." CF said the Verdigris ammonia interruption would commence at 6 p.m. on April 17.

Just one day earlier, CF had announced that UAN was being allocated at its Courtright, Ont., facility, and urea was being allocated at the company's Medicine Hat, Alberta, plant. CF attributed both allocations to interruptions in supply availability. CF also reported on April 16 that its Woodward, Okla., facility was out of service due to power outages caused by tornadoes in that area on April 15.

CF's Verdigris plant has two ammonia plants with a total combined production of more than 3,200 tons per day, with some 2,400 tons of that upgraded to UAN under optimal production rates. The Verdigris plant is the largest UAN production facility in North America, with the capacity to produce more than 5,600 tons per day of UAN-32.

[hobbyfrmr]

Interrupted supply, just after a moderate demand
winter, and lowest natural gas prices in years. It is
also just before planting in north america. Sounds
fishy. Sounds to me like a recipe for an increase
in prices and pretty nice profits.

[Burbert]

Free market at work. Just like in Russia
where the oligarchies have control they
gouge ya. This is after all Comedia,
where us framers like challenges. Gotta
have it at any price boys/girls cousin wes
hooked!!!! Industry nose it, the
clusterf#$k continues......

[agstar77]

Canola biggest nitrogen user. Switch to pulses. I have switched to soybeans. That is how you lower prices.

[SASKFARMER3]

We might drop 500 acres of Canola from our
rotation. Found Cert pea seed today. Will
take our pulses back to 1200 acres.

[LWeber]

On Dec 31, 2011 there were still 730,000 MT of peas left on farms and 167,000 MT of commercial stocks which would include seed and grain in export position.

You need 250,000 to 300,000 MT to seed 3.5 million acres.

[wmoebis]

Isn't the supply/production and price of fert, chem, fuel, machinery/repairs not called supply management? Input suppliers keep the production low in a high demand market and drive the price up or at least keep it stable. When the demand drops they cut production and drive price back up. Supply Management.

We as grain/cattle producers/suppliers, when the price of products go up we mass produce, at what ever the cost, more fert better newer machinery, more land driving the inputs up and the price of products down then we produce even more trying to offset our losses. We mass produce high quality products, at high cost and then flood the markets driving the price down.

I was told one time by a leading 'ag adviser' that producers are poor buisnessmen I am starting to believe him. Good producers, poor buisnessmen.

[countryguy]

Bingo wmoebis.The exact reason I suggested not maximizing production in another thread. I was basically called an idiot. Who are the REAL stupid ones?

[bucket]

The soil moisture maps don't point to increasing inputs to the crop this year as it may not pay off anyway.

If it don't rain it don't matter. And that 20 bushel crop may end paying as well as a 30 bpa anyway.

[furrowtickler]

yuup, we may have bought twice as much as we need if things don't change in the next 15 days or so.

[T.N.T.]

wmoebis you are dead on the money!!! A lot of farmers are just to stupid,to figure that one out though!!Or they are to far in debt,and have to grow every kernel they possable can.

[hobbyfrmr]

TNT I don't agree with farmers being stupid. I do
agree, over time some farmers become over
leveraged and realize that they have to grow huge
crops to,make cash flow. It seems to be working
in my area. I hope they are making lots of money,
because they are spending lots of money on fert,
herb, fungicide, and sweet machinery.
The opposite side of the coin, I remember well
established farmers with actual cash in the bank
saying things like " I can't afford another big crop"
meaning high yields, make a glut of grain on the
market and prices were absurdly low.

[bucket]

I don't agree with farmers being stupid either. They are forced to book inputs 6 months to a year in advance.

So you book it and either use it or don't pick it up. They can only invoice you for what you take home.

Look at innoculant. Bought enough last year for 1000 acres and ended up with half a pallet left over because it was too wet. Now what? the rep says they will check it this spring for activity and if its still at 50 percent it ok.

[cottonpicken]

You can take back innoculant.

Its the farmers job to produce as much as possible at the cheapest
price possible-all business is this-this is the base of capitalism.

What is not acceptable is price collusion among a very few entities-
i.e fertilizer companies-and if they are screwing us you call up a few
hard pipe hitting ******s to goto work on those fools with a pair of
players and a blow torch.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wN2-I31Imis

Actually a pretty good metaphor for the farmers,we maybe at each
others throats,but push come to shove...we are all on the same
page.

Viewer discretion is advised

[Hopperbin]

Pretty sure your screwed on the innoculant and cotton the dealer will only take it back if they have a sale for it that spring. What kind of innoculant you got that you think is still good? trying not to chuckle