seeded acreage report on 24th

[oliver990]

Errol, Weber,Charlie and others

i would like to hear points of view on what may happen on report.

When information was gathered a distinctly different feel. 30 days ago oilseeds where on bullish upward tear, Nitrogen prices were 30% less and those of us central/east Sask thought we would be planting in April.

market action just ahead of seeding may decrease some canola in swing acres especially factoring Nitrogen price if naked on any amount of tonnes, anyone who has not at least locked in a supply of Nitrogen maybe S.O.L.
East Central Sask in lots of areas will be lucky to be driving on fields by May 7. (if keeps raining later than that here, need next week to be hot and windy)

the report IMHO will overstate canola seeding intentions. can not see anything over 19.5 canola. My guess report says 21 or higher. sending further down pressure on new crop bids...temporarily.

Agree? Disagree? Comments.

[SASKFARMER3]

I think you hit the nail on the head.
Their is no way in hell the canola that
actually goes in the ground will be
close to 22 million acres. Vittera
phoned today and if I need some more
L150 they have all I need. Hm companies
still have canola and its two weeks till
seeding. Yea their will be 22 million
acres. AS I bite my tongue in cheek.

[Hopperbin]

Coop just phoned me today wondering if I still want the sulfer. I thought I had a deal and I was just giving them time to deliver. As far as I know I have sulfer but if they do not supply they can have their canola back also.

[bucket]

They need at least 21 million acres to maintain the same production as last year when a farmer looks at the soil maps.

Now add in the extra cost of fertilizer, the price drop in recent days and I would say the end user is going to regret lowering the price of canola sometime about next march when their plants sit idle until August 2013.

Get canola back to 18 million acres and see what happens.

[grgsrvc]

I got all my AMS home. I'm hoping the dealers
don't run out as I want to be able to accuse
Agrium of calling wolf. But if they do I guess the
days of being able to just go into town in the
spring are over. Will put up more at home fert.
storage and then do more price shopping. When
the semi is out in in the winter a back haul home
once in a while would be nice. More support for
independents that are out of my home area I
guess.

[mbratrud]

No matter how you skin it, it's not hard to pencil out a potential Canola production number in the 15.8 - 16 MMT range. Which means we need Exports to be strong, and will continue to rely on China to be there in a big way. Although there are little signs Europe may be back at the table for Canadian seed.

I think Statscan will be a non event for Canola. Crops I will be watching are Durum, Lentils, Flax, Oats and Barley. any of those crops could have surprises that cause a larger stir than Canola.

I actually wish there would be a bit of a shock in Canola so we could see a setback of $50 - $75 a tonne, would help in the long run. Biggest threat right now is Chinese crush capacity moves away from Canola.
JMO

[MLamirandeRM]

These are the average market expectations for the report...Canadian canola acreage is expected at 20.5 – 21.5 million acres. All wheat is expected at 23.5 – 25.5 million hectares (58.1 – 63.0 million acres). Durum wheat planting intentions are expected at 5.5 – 6.5 million hectares (13.6 – 16.0 million acres).

Michelle, Farms.com Risk Management

[dave4441]

Really? 13-16 million ac of durum? Am i reading something wrong here?

[mbratrud]

I think you better have another look at
your acres and Hectares on Wheat and
Durum. If your haectares were acres I
think you would be in the ballpark