Ummm...

[silverback]

At the risk of sounding dumb yet again, can anyone in the trading side of the grain business explain what gives this week?

3 days ago the top was in, canola was overbought, the seas were rising and cats and dogs were living together. Sell, sell, sell !

Now today, July canola finishes up $8.50 and soybeans up $28?

I know it is just me, but it sure seems this spring that every time someone says sell the price does the opposite?

[dschill]

Bottlenecks in S.A. supply chain and concerns about rapid corn planting may not lend support to additional soy acres needed.


As per Mike from Ag.com


So, here is the scoop about the rumor of Brazil halting soybean exports until August.
The truth is all of Brazil's soybeans are spoken for. Because the Brazilian farmers sold so much in the first three months of 2012, with total exports at 6.8 mmt and 4.3 mmt going to China alone, the ports are saturated with those shipments.
So, if China or anyone else needs to make new soybean purchases, the ports can't handle that. In that case, China or whomever, would have to buy from the U.S.
So, exports are not being halted but there is a situation with soybean sales in Brazil.

Clear as mud...

[bucket]

siverback

Maybe it has something to do with people that can't do math. It sounds like canola stocks will be very tight come the end of july and the pipeline will be empty. Unfortunately, what those that can't do math don't realize is that this year's canola crop production won't be higher than last year's even with the higher acreage. It has something to do with soil moisture. But I am just a dumb**** farmer.

So if they run out this year and the production is the same, what happens next July?

[furrowtickler]

hehehehe...
Still got a few days here before ready

[oliver990]

Silverback, this is the second time this year i have listened when told the top is in. i dumped another 10% canola at $14 on Monday. still good price.

[haveapulse]

Damage in the FSU and Europe is quantifiable.

[bucket]

Does it ever make you wonder if the people talking the market down are on the bad side of a trade and need it backed off to protect their positions.

Cotton alluded to that a while back and got me wondering.

[charliep]

From a chart perspective, still haven't
broken out of the trading range. Nothing
new. Is there anything wrong with
selling $14/but canola if you still have
in the bin? What is your price?

[mbratrud]

Bucket I have seen these several times... Never take advise from the trade especially in small commodities like Lentils, Flax, Canary and Mustard.

There is very little oldcrop left to be priced and the pipeline will be empty. As a good freind always says will still have time to kill this crop plenty of times, will be interesting.

It's all the outside noise that shakes my confidence mostly.

[SASKFARMER3]

Two things come to mind!
One SA farmers did pre sell and guess
what they grew a shit crop. DAH mother
nature did not rain and guess what all
they have is gone.
USA is full of shit and is short crop.
Only country in world last year that
didnt have problems. and it was so
fricking dry in south ground had cracks
in texas that sunk a pickup.
Three the winter problems in europe did
do damage to winter canola etc.
Finally Canadian farmers Bins are
getting pretty close to empty. Crop last
year wasnt as big as most say and will
be down to nothing come july.
Canadian crop wont be 22 23 or 24
million acres because why is their still
seed available.
D R O U G H T in some of western canada.
F L O O D in some of western canada.
YESTERDAY put us in a really shitty
spring with all this moisture and their
calling for more. Were back to like last
summer.

[wmoebis]

Not trying to be rude, but isn't that a bit like asking how cheap will you work for, then posting it on the net for everyone including your employer to see?

I think the bigger question should be, to the world maketers. How cheap are they willing to dump our production onto the world market to get your market share? If they can't get $14 will they pull off the market?

Any I have talked to say we get as much as we can but all we are really interested in is our market share and the profits we make on that share.

[SASKFARMER3]

You look dry sending some rain that way!

[Hopperbin]

She is pretty wet here again Klause, ground is quite saturated after yesterday again. Looks like you can get done planting there before you need to start here.

[bucket]

Canola went well over 15 back in 2008. Since then the trade and statscan have been borrowing from the new crop to keep prices lower. Don't think it happens? Look at what they have been saying about the extra corn they have in the states for August. They are counting on new crop coming in to satisfy demand. And a late august going into september don't cut it. They are out.

The same thing with canola. Viterra had a premium on if you could deliver new crop in August. Pretty much tells you when they are going to run out. I would be more inclined to think mid July since SF3 said he was getting over 10 for heated canola. That tells you something.

[Burbert]

Common sense says that next year, prices
will stabilize, in other words drop
dramatically. The gag world will return
to normal, fertilizer prices'll say
high. Framers will agin start whinning
and snivelin. Gag Minister Cracker will
continue ta hid and normallacy will
occur, rich'll git richer, poor'll get
pooor. Comedian framing is a rather
borrring occupation, considering all the
challenges that cum our way. Scratchin
the earth with a crooked stick, always
has been boooooooorrrrring..........