China - Europe - Walmart - Mexico Oh,Oh

[errolanderson]

An interesting day ahead. China and
Europe manufacturing data disappoints,
now scandal involving Walmart in Mexico.
These factors may pressure commodities
today.

What's going to take the bloom off our
canola market . . . global financial
problems. cotton . . . agree with you,
this may be a bear-trap

and to boot . . . . the Alberta
election.

Errol

[bucket]

Don't forget the statscan report coming up.

[SASKFARMER3]

Yea thats a market killer every year.

[errolanderson]

These are Reuters pre-report trade average
guess as per survey of traders.

Canola 20.6 million acres
Barley 7.7
Oats 3.4
Peas 3.1
Durum 4.5
All Wheat 23.4
Flax 0.925

[hobbyfrmr]

For once I agree with SF3. Canadian statscan
reports are market killers.

[Wheatking]

No way canola is over 20. I guess 19.5-
20. I am not saying that is what is going
in the ground, just that there is no way
stats can comes out with a number above 20

[bucket]

18 x 35 = 630

21 x 30 = 630

More acres, less bpa considering the soil maps. If I was an end user 15 bucks a bushel is a bargain right now for canola.

[dave4441]

Have not seen anyone that is bearish at all on new crop canola even with 20 million acres. Does that mean it is time to short it???????????

[errolanderson]

Here's an interesting option that traded
today.

Jan canola $580 puts traded @ $25/MT.
Great time value and price protection.

$580 strike - $25 premium = $555/MT
($12.60/bu)- plus or minus your late fall
delivered basis.

[wd9]

50 pounds of canola in a bushel. Oil to
seed ratio is 2.4. 50 over 2.4 is 21
pounds of oil per bushel.

2.4 tonnes of canola makes a tonne of
oil or roughly 1100 litres of oil. $600
a tonne seed times 2.4 costs $1440 to
make a tonne of oil or roughly $1.20 a
litre to make after crush. Less meal
sale and its about $1.10 a litre.

So even at todays price its still half
the price or less of a bottle of evian
water.

So can the smart ones here tell me how
much is too much for a bushel of canola?

[Hopperbin]

Errol China's economy may have been dissappointing to some but it has still expanded 8.1 percent for the first quarter compared to the first quarter a year earlier. According to Bloomberg, and also by Bloomberg, New local-currency loans rose last month to 1.01 trillion yuan ($160 billion), the highest in more than a year.