Principal field crops, March 2012 (intentions)

[SASKFARMER3]

Early intentions for planting in 2012
show increases in spring wheat and durum
wheat compared with 2011, and a possible
record acreage of canola.
Canadian farmers may seed a record 20.4
million acres of canola in 2012, up 8.0%
or 1.5 million acres from the previous
record of 18.9 million acres set in
2011. This would be the sixth
consecutive annual record in canola area
at the national level.

This increase is driven by Saskatchewan,
where farmers anticipate increasing
their canola area 9.9% to a record high
of 10.8 million acres.

In Manitoba, farmers reported intentions
to plant more canola, returning to pre-
flood levels after being hit hard in
2011. They now intend to seed 3.3
million acres in canola, a 19.3%
increase from the 2.7 million acres
seeded in 2011.
spring wheat area could rise 9.0% or 1.4
million acres to 17.2 million acres in
2012.

Similarly, durum wheat acreage is
expected to increase for a second
consecutive year, to 5.1 million acres
in 2012 from 4.0 million acres in 2011.

In Saskatchewan, intentions show spring
wheat acreage rising to 8.6 million
acres, up 14.7% or 1.1 million acres.
Durum wheat acreage in Saskatchewan is
expected to rise 28.1%, or 975,000
acres, to 4.5 million acres.

In Manitoba, farmers anticipate that
their seeded area of spring wheat will
rise 24.9% in 2012 to 2.5 million acres.

In Alberta, however, early intentions
are for 5.9 million acres of spring
wheat, down 2.3% from the area seeded in
2011.
Potential for record acreage of corn for
grain in the Eastern canada.
Nationally, farmers are expecting to
seed a soybean area of nearly 4.0
million acres in 2012, up from 3.8
million acres the previous year. This
would be a record high.
Manitoba farmers anticipate seeding
800,000 acres in 2012, which would
represent a fourth consecutive annual
record high.

[SASKFARMER3]

2010 (final) 2011 (final)
March 2012 (intentions) 2010 to 2011
2011 to March 2012
thousands of acres % change
Total wheat1 21,065 21,464 24,324
1.9 13.3
Spring wheat 16,475 15,760 17,178
-4.3 9.0
Durum wheat 3,150 4,015 5,100
27.5 27.0
Winter wheat2 1,439 1,689 2,047
17.3 21.2
Canola 17,608 18,862 20,372 7.1
8.0
Barley 6,911 6,472 7,968 -6.3
23.1
Summerfallow 10,760 12,410 3,970
15.3 -68.0
Soybeans 3,665 3,830 3,969
4.5 3.6
Corn for grain 3,000 3,009 3,562
0.3 18.4
Oats 3,013 3,109 3,393 3.2
9.1
Dry field peas 3,625 2,328 3,310
-35.8 42.2
Lentils 3,480 2,570 2,460 -26.1
-4.3
Flaxseed 925 695 1,040
-24.9 49.6

[dave4441]

Boy, you are on the ball this am?

Canola, durum, pea, flax numbers all kinda
realistic. Lentils flat has me wondering though.
Pea number looks pretty realistic as well.

Ws there a canary number?

[dave4441]

Gaining 8 million acres of fallow back into grain
production and only 1.5 million increase in
canola? Does that seem right?

[SASKFARMER3]

Cleaning already this morning so reading.
Will finish last Unity! now 5602 then just
three guys with Barley!
Drill one done, drill two blew a steel
hydrolic line yesterday oil every where.
But problem fields way to wet. Sit and
wait.

[SASKFARMER3]

No Canary number that I could see. Looks
normal most intentions. Lots looking for
pea seed in our area. Still dont think
canola will be higher than 19.6 in end.
With lower yields if rain dont come and we
keep flooding and I thinks were out of
product by next May. This year were out of
canola July the crushers know this and are
doing shut down all july in yorkton.

[dave4441]

Why would it be unreasonable for canola to be up
1.5 million acres when farmers expect to plant 8
million more acres of crop. I realize that it is
getting wet in areas again but likely generally
normal weather will prevail???

[SASKFARMER3]

We will see.

[dave4441]

Canary is 295000 expected acres which probably
means another yr of similar pricing depending on
demand.

[charliep]

It is normal procedure for canola plants to shutdown
over the summer for maintainance. The question
always is whether a short break or a longer one. A
look at their oil and meal sales program would
answer that question. Will surprise everyone here but
I don't any canola crusher is unaware about how tight
canola supplies are. Won't put the link in for grain
stats weekly but deliveries are staying high - will get
yelled at/told I am full of crap but I think there is
more old crop canola out there than everyone thinks
but I won't play the short side in this market for the
next four months (book crush or exports without
having canola supplies booked from farmers). My
favorite expression from a trader in the past is never
sell out of an empty wagon.

[SASKFARMER3]

Charley the crushers are looking in
yorkton for canola in august early sept
then basis changes. Its better than past
so me thinks they know the bins are
empty. Talked to Cargil yesterday and
all BTO are out of Canola but surprising
some well off smaller farmers do have
some. Not huge numbers just a bin or
two. But he also felt the bins would be
empty come July. If the USA has beans in
20s then for sure the bins will be
empty.

[furrowtickler]

Not surprising at all that mid sized farmers have canola left. Most of these guys are not chasing more land and paying huge rents thus require less cash flow. They can play the game alot longer than others. There is a reason for everything.
For the first time in a long time stats can is going to be very close.

[Farmkid1]

Dave in North Sask lots of growers were big on canola in 2011 because we were flooded out in 10. The rotations seem to be going to peas, barley and wheat, with about half in canola....instead of 3/4's of the farm like last year. Canola/snow/canola has not caught on much yet. If numbers stay good, it will...so yes even with the summerfallow acreage in the south I think the north is pulling back a little.

[furrowtickler]

Good to see the canola market up still after the stats can report.

[dave4441]

OK, good comments. Might be a little less canola in SW and Kindersley area (it was pretty yellow here last year) due to expected drought. With some additional moisture it may not be easy (and high n price) to jump those acres back to last years levels. May also explain why lentil acreage is maintaining itself to some degree.