Nitrogen Shortage

[BreadWinner]

46-0-0 nitrogen has gone up to $900.00 per TON.
OUCH!!! If you haven't booked it you  won't get it.
Extremely short the dealers are  saying. Heard my
dealer telling some customers yesterday that they
had to keep looking because they are sold out.

[ALLFARMER]

With natural gas so cheap time for another plant
to be set up!

[furrowtickler]

ya guys around here that took on more dirt recently are having a hard time sorcing fert. Add that to $85 rents -ouch. Pea innoculant and seed treatments sold out and remaing peas for seed are heavily deseased.

[dave4441]

V280 will pretty much control any pea disease except phytium and crack seed coat issues. I suspect that is available.

[Partners]

46-0-0 is $960.00 @ the Coop..

[wd9]

Considering the air is 79% nitrogen, we
gotta come up with a better way than what
we are doing for soil nitrogen.

[wd9]

Has anyone looked into making their own
NH3? A bit dated but:

http://newenergyandfuel.com/http:/newene
rgyandfuel/com/2010/06/15/wind-to-
fertilizer-construction-begins/

The Haber process given the cost of
NatGas today and the time factor we as
farmers have to slowly produce NH3 over
the year and given the price of NH3 seem
to point to there being a better way.

[wd9]

Meth cooks have been making NH3 for years.
How do they do it?

[bucket]

Yeah its sort of funny that a guy that makes a living watching markets is about as good as those that predict elections.

Hold out errol, eventually you will be right. And then you can say " I told you so".

Either way when you become a bull, it may be time to sell.

Just some good natured ribbing, I too respect your posts. Another opinion is a good thing.

[cottonpicken]

There are lots of nitrogen producers around the
world,what we should do is form a co-op,buy out a
small gas company,find our co2 source and goto
town.You can have 46 dropped off in bags from
Timbuktu,in containers in regina,or where ever.

I'm on record as never liking value
add(ethanol,pasta),but production add is a different
story.

[sawfly]

absolutely , we have to take control
the timing of the big price increase .
too late for anyone to load overseas
and get here in time.
it would take some commitment from farm owners of a new fert. co.
as soon as you were up and running.
for some reason the prices would drop
and the farmer fert. co. would be the highest priced on the market.

at least until they were run out of business.

[agstar77]

He will be right eventually.

[Daylate]

I think some off shore russian urea would be a good idea for next year. We could have it by dec/jan if we got our shit together. FNA pulled it off, but they haven't seem so interested in doing it again yet. Maybe this will get the ball rolling

[errolanderson]

wd9 and bucket . . . I enjoy your posts
too and yes, I deserve your ribbing.
Keep um comin . . . . But here's my case
for commodity markets.

Bull markets have a lifespan. We are
going through an era of financial
history not seen since the last Great
Depression. Please don't let your
marketing skills slip through thoughts
that these markets and farming are
bullet-proof . . . they are not.

I am watching Frontline tonite a 3-part
series on the financial collapse of the
U.S. In 2005, the upcoming bust in the
U.S. real estate market was clear as day
to us. But it took until 2006 before the
collapse of Bear Stearns tipped the
bubble over.

We are seeing markets that have huge
central bank balance sheets holding up
equity market boot straps right now. My
fear is; the last half of 2012 and into
2013 may be a period of adjustment.
Should stock markets correct, this game
of commodity market leverage may take a
sharp setback and the start of global
credit deleveraging will begin in-
earnest. Dick Cheneys's statement in
2003 that debt doesn't matter did make
my choke on my soup. To me, the global
debt crisis has yet to be dealt with.
This is just the warmup act.

And there is no hope in heck of any
interest rate hike for a very long time
contrary to Bank of Canada hints just
last week which annoyed the heck out of
me.

Regarding to our cash canola market, I
don't change my view . . . Our cash
canola market is overbought, no ifs,
buts, or maybes in my mind. Soybeans are
rallying, but corn and wheat are
continuing their descent. Is there a
disconnect?

I'm posting on Agriville right now
because I have strong views on what lies
ahead and want growers to realize that
these are 'good times' in farming that
should not be taken for granted. And be
careful with debt as it is insidous
should markets take a downturn.

I hope you enjoy this opinionated
opinion as much as I enjoy yours. We are
all in this together and for the best of
Western Canadian ag industry.

All the best in your marketing
Errol

[malleefarmer]

Good post Errol