Nitrogen Shortage

[Daylate]

I think some off shore russian urea would be a good idea for next year. We could have it by dec/jan if we got our shit together. FNA pulled it off, but they haven't seem so interested in doing it again yet. Maybe this will get the ball rolling

[errolanderson]

wd9 and bucket . . . I enjoy your posts
too and yes, I deserve your ribbing.
Keep um comin . . . . But here's my case
for commodity markets.

Bull markets have a lifespan. We are
going through an era of financial
history not seen since the last Great
Depression. Please don't let your
marketing skills slip through thoughts
that these markets and farming are
bullet-proof . . . they are not.

I am watching Frontline tonite a 3-part
series on the financial collapse of the
U.S. In 2005, the upcoming bust in the
U.S. real estate market was clear as day
to us. But it took until 2006 before the
collapse of Bear Stearns tipped the
bubble over.

We are seeing markets that have huge
central bank balance sheets holding up
equity market boot straps right now. My
fear is; the last half of 2012 and into
2013 may be a period of adjustment.
Should stock markets correct, this game
of commodity market leverage may take a
sharp setback and the start of global
credit deleveraging will begin in-
earnest. Dick Cheneys's statement in
2003 that debt doesn't matter did make
my choke on my soup. To me, the global
debt crisis has yet to be dealt with.
This is just the warmup act.

And there is no hope in heck of any
interest rate hike for a very long time
contrary to Bank of Canada hints just
last week which annoyed the heck out of
me.

Regarding to our cash canola market, I
don't change my view . . . Our cash
canola market is overbought, no ifs,
buts, or maybes in my mind. Soybeans are
rallying, but corn and wheat are
continuing their descent. Is there a
disconnect?

I'm posting on Agriville right now
because I have strong views on what lies
ahead and want growers to realize that
these are 'good times' in farming that
should not be taken for granted. And be
careful with debt as it is insidous
should markets take a downturn.

I hope you enjoy this opinionated
opinion as much as I enjoy yours. We are
all in this together and for the best of
Western Canadian ag industry.

All the best in your marketing
Errol

[malleefarmer]

Good post Errol

[haveapulse]

Hmm I pitched the idea on this blog, that was suggested to me by few farmers, that we ask for the 63 million dollars of railway overcharge to be directed to beginning a fund of patient capital to diversify the industry potentially starting with a fertilizer plant. Seemed like a good idea to me, anyway, the idea was well criticized but the pundits on this blog. Slaughtered would be more precise.

[haveapulse]

http://www.westerngrains.com/print.asp?id=14521&ts=0&srch=
I stand corrected it was 68 million dollars and that was 2008!

[cottonpicken]

I feel sorry for market analysts that put their real
names out there,its a thankless job.

I disagree with what the crash will look like,its an
inflationary crash.

[SASKFARMER3]

Yea good post Errol, Yes in 1979 we
thought the world was our king and
farming would be the greatest thing for
decades. Well two years later the
Auctions were going strong and then the
great drought hit western canada.
Interest went up and lots and lots and
lots of guys were never heard from
again.
Every thing that goes up has to come
down.
Keep posting we all get thicker skin.

[wd9]

We could create 2 pools. The Western Cdn
fert pool and the Western Cdn grain Pool.
My how we have come full circle.

[tipsy]

I also appericate your thoughts. Right now there is more going on in this business of marketing grain than what we understand for now. The way some south pacific countries are buying grain today should be alarming For example China has and is continuing it's buying spree and if they are not harvesting right now they are just day's away but yet they continue to purchase. You are correct, the canola price is very attractive right now and one should be taking advantage of this rally. BUT my thoughts are this, there are more oilseed supply issues today than there has been for sometime and this should contine to keep some pressure on canola prices. Word of warning, I've been wrong this week already!!!

[SASKFARMER3]

20 Into Yorkton? for July. Makes my 0
look sick. Oh wait have to get it to
yorkton. ME bad.

[SASKFARMER3]

20 into Yorkton.

[SASKFARMER3]

Plus 20 for some reason cant put 20