Nitrogen Shortage

[haveapulse]

Hmm I pitched the idea on this blog, that was suggested to me by few farmers, that we ask for the 63 million dollars of railway overcharge to be directed to beginning a fund of patient capital to diversify the industry potentially starting with a fertilizer plant. Seemed like a good idea to me, anyway, the idea was well criticized but the pundits on this blog. Slaughtered would be more precise.

[haveapulse]

http://www.westerngrains.com/print.asp?id=14521&ts=0&srch=
I stand corrected it was 68 million dollars and that was 2008!

[cottonpicken]

I feel sorry for market analysts that put their real
names out there,its a thankless job.

I disagree with what the crash will look like,its an
inflationary crash.

[SASKFARMER3]

Yea good post Errol, Yes in 1979 we
thought the world was our king and
farming would be the greatest thing for
decades. Well two years later the
Auctions were going strong and then the
great drought hit western canada.
Interest went up and lots and lots and
lots of guys were never heard from
again.
Every thing that goes up has to come
down.
Keep posting we all get thicker skin.

[wd9]

We could create 2 pools. The Western Cdn
fert pool and the Western Cdn grain Pool.
My how we have come full circle.

[tipsy]

I also appericate your thoughts. Right now there is more going on in this business of marketing grain than what we understand for now. The way some south pacific countries are buying grain today should be alarming For example China has and is continuing it's buying spree and if they are not harvesting right now they are just day's away but yet they continue to purchase. You are correct, the canola price is very attractive right now and one should be taking advantage of this rally. BUT my thoughts are this, there are more oilseed supply issues today than there has been for sometime and this should contine to keep some pressure on canola prices. Word of warning, I've been wrong this week already!!!

[SASKFARMER3]

20 Into Yorkton? for July. Makes my 0
look sick. Oh wait have to get it to
yorkton. ME bad.

[SASKFARMER3]

20 into Yorkton.

[SASKFARMER3]

Plus 20 for some reason cant put 20

[BreadWinner]

High fert price mean grain prices are high and were making money, low fertilizer prices mean crop prices are low and were losing money. It is supply and demand, there isnt anything you can do about it. Same for seed, land rent, machinery,etc.

[wmoebis]

haveapulse I'm with you. Where are the benifits from our money that this gov't gave away?

With the price of nat gas, fert should be at an all time low, if there was more produced. Why aren't bins bursting there is no reason for shortage. It is man made not weather related like grain it doesn't have competition from other crops, supplies or weeds and insects.

This gov't should be kick starting plants all over the prairies. The problem is they don't give a damd about farmers they want a stong agriculture industry and in thier minds farmers are just A Supplier To The Industry.

This land will be farmed, they know that and they don't care who farms it or how much they make. As long as agriculture industry is making money for Canada.

Every time this gov't opens it's mouth about agriculture or for that matter anything. You better read between the lines. What is good for the industry could be on the backs of the suppliers to the indtustry.

[dave4441]

Why is canola $14/Bu, it didn,t cost that much to produce it in 2011 did it?

Saying that the fert idea is a good one but you still need share ownership and you need to sell at market price. Shares per acre will work or some other kind of structure. Not sure you need to own a gas company to do it, maybe gas storage.

[wmoebis]

If producers would have seeded wall to wall canola and flooded the market I don't think we would see $14 prices.

If we could do the same with N fert it also would drive the price down. I don't think the price of fert has anything to with the cost of production. What does it actually cost the fert companies to make fert without profits for shareholders.

If the shareholders were the farmers we would profit in fert at COP and make our profit on the crops we produce from it.

I think it is time to ensure grain producers make a living by reducing the COP.

If the input suppliers get in a wreck let the gov't subsidize or bail them out like the auto industry. Fertinvest or fert insurance instead of agriinvest or crop ins.

Like haveapulse said the kick start money was there but we let the gov't give it away.

Just food for thought.

[charliep]

Just curious if people cross hedge input purchases with crop sales? You could have booked cheaper N this past winter but you would have also forward priced canola as example for less money. Perhaps the thought of locking in margin.

The issue is shutdowns in the fertilizer (particularly on the urea side with a fire in the US) and the seeding of lots of acres of high nitrogen use crops (corn in the US and canola in Canada).

[Burbert]

Angribusiness always has a million reasons
fer HIGH inputs, BUTT really theys just
trying ta grab their share. Open market
at work, gouge, cheat, steal, whatever
bullshi* excuse there is they'll
(Angribusiness'll use it)!!!!!! How's
that fer an analysis????????