Nitrogen Shortage

[Hopperbin]

Instead of sticking that last 300 grand into a quarter section of land, perhaps there could be a better investment opportunity out there. Don't they make that anhydrous as fast as we can use it? Maybe just gotta plant a couple weeks later. What about that company making the exhaust attatchment there must be some plant usable N going into the ground with that contraption. In fact if one needed Natural gas one could probably purchase a hundred years supply pretty cheap if investing in the wells.

[charliep]

An interesting day in the market with old/new crop spreads changing quite dramatically. Would be watching. Comments?

[Hopperbin]

charlie can you cut and past the ice futures contract for me, i am having a blond moment cannot find the futures prices

[Hopperbin]

What is new crop into Yorkton Sask3? I am debating selling a little more new crop. Of course into Yorkton is not going off combine unless I hire a trucker. I mean basis, Sept. del.

[Hopperbin]

Oh and I love your posts also Errol, which is pretty good cause I never told the wife I love her.

[malleefarmer]

like charlies as well

[charliep]

Apologize for being a little over excited but these are interesting times that only come around so often. Maybe some is actually having a conversation about markets.

I will admit to being the worst person in the world for picking tops. What I try to do is look for evidence.

The market is short as a result of the weather issues in South America (realizing there is still a significant sized crop there). US front loads there soybean sales in the fall to avoid this period. So the market is busy chasing supplies (physical soybeans) in tighter than expected market in a time of funds that willing to chase the market higher. My experience is that shorts get covered (with apologies for the visual) and markets tumble unless another factor kicks in.

Factors I would be spreads (inverses and daily changes), basis levels, volume and open interest, etc plus the other tools in the tool box. To me, this is just as important as absolute futures price levels.

[ianben]

Hi Charlie
I have a simple way of deciding wether N is
cheap or expensive.

If N/tonne is more than wheat/tonne price x 2 it is
expensive less and its cheap.

This years N is £314/tonne and sold wheat at
£176/tonne
Last year N £215 and Wheat £115.

Similar cries here of price gouging but I think its
cheaper or should I say I should make more at todays
prices.

[ColevilleH2S]

Ianben;
Are those figures for granular Urea?



For anyone who cares, Pound to Canadian Dollar is about 1:1.6 now.

[ianben]

Ammonium nitrate 34.5N
They are not current prices. We buy June so they
where June2010 and 2011 N prices. We then forward
sell wheat around the same time so in June 10 we
sold May 11 wheat at £115 and June 11 sold March
12wheat at £175.

N34.5 delivered today £300 June £285 Feed wheat
May 13 £161

Still cheap?!?!

[grassfarmer]

UK price on granular urea was around $544/metric
tonne in February.

[cottonpicken]

Your not the only one exited.

The chance to smash 24 beans in a few peoples faces will be fun,like napalm
in the morning,it will smell like victory,i know you don't surf Charlie.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jts9suWIDlU&feature=related

[BreadWinner]

I'm thinking we are going to blow right through 2008 highs and its going to leave everyone looking clueless. Beans arnt way overpriced, everything else is just behind. I think $15 dollar wheat is right around the corner. Interesting times ahead in a hungry world.

[Hopperbin]

What is happennning with palm oil these days?

[wd9]

Well i'm thinking its close to the top for
now. Seeding soon so boom, it'll come
down.