Canola Up!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[SASKFARMER3]

Good night again as Canola and Beans in
front month Climb. July did climb also
but the spread is 17.00 a ton.
Interesting times. Should a guy hope for
16 to liquidate or wait. Yes pigs get
slaughtered but I thinks the world maybe
didnt really have as much as we thought
and this borrow from new crop mentality
to make the supply look good BS is
finally showing up.
Who knows as we move to higher
territory.

[silverback]

I know the kids were satisfied with the price at the time, but it sure is sad to see the bins empty and the market still rising. Could have used the extra to pay for the higher cost of fertilizer we see now.

There were just so many saying sell, sell.

[BreadWinner]

Fasten your seat belts, I think the annalists have it completely wrong. The world is running out of food and we are in the drivers seat. The prices of all grains are just about to explode. 10 dollar corn,20 dollar soybeans,15 dollar wheat,is the next level and we are going to get that no problem. There is nothing wrong with todays prices if you really want to price. Grab onto those great prices but be aware if short on a contract the penalty could be huge. We are a long ways from having our crop in the bin, I"ll grow the crop first then let the world fight for it.

[SASKFARMER3]

I found it funny at meeting just before
christmas how it was sell sell sell.
From All Grain companies etc. I was told
by head office rep that I know Jack shit
about crop in SA and that Grain
companies have guys on the ground that
relay messages back to them on the crop.
I said I have real farmers on the ground
they kind of snickered. Saw the dude the
other day looked kind of sheepish. Its
about information.
You can read charts but understand how a
crop grows. It needs Water Sun and No
frost.
Argentina was missing the first had lots
of second.
Brazil was missing the first and had
second.
Europe grows a Winter Canola their like
us and they had the shittiest winter in
history how do you think their crops
survived. So yes they had problems.
Then now were seeing that maybe the E
europe also had problems. BIngo and
CAnada isnt in that great shape.
Fricking lovely out side today.
So all Im saying is Maybe as farmers we
also have some advantage over the So
called Gurus. WE FARM AND MOST
UNDERSTAND HOW THE CROPS GROW.
So use the charts and READ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
IMHO!!!!!!!!!!!

[SASKFARMER3]

Also its funny how we have to sign up for
contracts with GRain companies WE just
have to preprice with them. BS were giving
them a gift of product.
Worry about the crop once its grown. As a
famous Eastern Sask EX farmer once said "I
was doing so good till I bet the farm on
Flax and IT froze August 4th".

[cottonpicken]

The paper trade is important to follow,the average
commodity trades 10x the paper over physical
supply.

I have not been able to find the ratio for grains and
oilseeds.

[lnewman]

I here you sf3 ,I agree grain companies love to think
they have answers to market , the Cargill guru of
marketing has been wrong so many times lately I
started doing opposite . I love to use my Farmer in
foreign country for info also. I am seeding a lot
wheat even though their #'s say not to.

[cottonpicken]

Not sure if anyone is interested in this math.

The trading range for beans for 30 years was 4-10
dollars,range factor of 2.5.

Old high becomes new low,10 dollars,range factor
2.5,volia 25 dollars,target.

Gave myself a buck wiggle room,and i don't believe in
pulling numbers out of thin air.

[SASKFARMER3]

Another drop in SA this morning. Total prod 100
m not 134 like the first prediction.
Hm out by a mile. Fricking wet rainy, snowy ugly
day in Regina. Oh yea great seeding weather. Bs
on total production. Mother nature is your guide.

[hobbyfrmr]

Cotton,

I know you study the market, and I appreciate
your insight and I like high prices..., but... Did this
not set up the same way in 2008? The market will
try to keep prices down. Industry does not like
farmers making money.

I recall farmers saying things like, " they have to
pay $11.00/ bu for canola, look at our costs.
These are the "new" grain prices.

Then the us recession set in, and rippled across
the AG sector and prices were back in the
doldrums.

I really want you to be correct but I have been
farming too long to have any confidence in any
markets.

[cottonpicken]

It was my opinion that we would get to the 600ish
level.

It was also my opinion that we would not overcome
that level,with the way things looked technically,this
old crop only(apart of a timing strategy).

So i was wrong.

The question that has been nagging me is-did beans
put the top in back in 08?or where they dragged
down by other events?-idont know the answer,but i
am confident in saying it will be quite sometime
before spring wheat sees new highs(minus a crackup
hyperinflation event)

The outside forces that crashed us a while back are
still there as are the forces that drove us upward to
this point.

I still believe its qe forever therefore currency
debasement,therefore inflation protected asset
classes will be attracting capital,but,yes big scares
and drops along the way.

[fjlip]

Spec traders make money on a change in prices, up or down.
There will be a "herd mentality" for reasons unknown today.
Unless there truly turns out to be a shortage after harvest, all bets off.
Too bad it didn't start in Nov, a billion plus in lost opportunity.

[hedgehog]

some info from scotland,
i heard today that a seed company in england has supplied 1800 tons of seed barley to reseed frosted canola /wheat in the ukraine recently.
they are scouring europe for seed .
my local seedsman got cleaned out of wheat to poland also.
just watch those futures gallop.

[oneoff]

You can bet the farm on literally winning the lottery. You can intend to live forever by using wealth and newest medical technology to live forever. You can expect to consistently out perform the market with bets based on market info and expert opinion BUT
Long term; You can't escape such basic mathematical functions as "the power of doubling", death and taxes. This applies to growth rates of population; resource use, food production; money and profits etc..
Individual skills work extremely well; for a relatively short time, for select people only; but the basic problems eventually come to visit even the smartest and wealthiest. It only takes a small misfortune in health or business or death to shake someone's empire to the core.