Average price for canola

[wd9]

Not so long ago, about 5 years ago,
stats were canola hit 7.50 less than 20%
of the time and when it hit there it was
time to seriously price?

Where are we today? is the new number
10.50 and higher less than 20%? 11.50?
Now the 7.50 was based on long term
averages but can that be done now?

So what's a good number for the average
price of canola?

[charliep]

Haven't updated the charts but did some spreadsheet work on just 2007 to current weekly canola prices (Alberta crusher.

Bids over $15/bu - occurred 2 weeks out of the 277 weeks in question (5 times 52 weeks plus 17 weeks on 2012).

Bids over $14/bu - 14 weeks over the period or about 5 % of the period.

Bids over $13/bu - 37 weeks or 13 % of the time.

Bids over $12/bu - 79 weeks or 29 % if the time.

Bids over $11/bu - 104 weeks or 38 % of the time.

Bids over $10/bu - 149 weeks or 54 % of the time.

Bids over $9/bu - 204 weeks or 74 % of the time.

This is not a forecast but rather a different way of looking at history and putting into perspecttive current prices. Canola prices relative to history are in the high end of the spectrum.

[charliep]

Average price over the period was $10.65/bu. The prices included the 2007/08 rally (actually the Feb., Mar. 2008 - the rally didn't last that long).

[wd9]

Awesome Charlie. THANKS!!!!!!!

So we're in the less than 1% chance
pricing opportunity. I'm thinking there is
a bit of a delivery signal there.

[BreadWinner]

You could say the same for seed, machinery, fuel, land,fertilizer, hired help. Does that mean we shouldnt go out and spend money on any of these things because they havnt been this much money before. No we need them!!!!!The world needs your grain as well and they will pay more just like we are going to get or our products.

[wd9]

Glyphosate along with most generics are
cheaper now than 5 ago along with
graminicides.

Seed and machinery are twice the size
and built better so ya they should be
more. Cereal seed cost is just math.
Don't think Errol's fees have doubled,
at least not yet

Farming is pretty sweet right now, but
stuff will catch up quick, because they
can.