USDA Crop Progress Report

[charliep]

Below is this week's version of the USDA crop progress report. The report highlights how far advanced seeding is south of the border.

[URL="http://usda01.library.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-04-30-2012.pdf"]April 30[/URL]

[bucket]

And a May freeze, not saying it will happen, but it would sure throw things for a loop.

[LWeber]

The evening GFS model run reduced rainfall in the southeastern U.S. and Tennessee River Basin May 8-10. Most other changes this evening were increases in precipitation beginning May 11-12 in the southern U.S. Plains, southern Delta and southeastern states as well as in a part of the Midwest. Wetter conditions were also suggested for the west-central high Plains region and in western and southern Texas May 13-15 as well as in Indiana, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina. Temperatures were not changed much over the next two weeks with cooler than usual conditions evolving in the eastern Midwest during the middle to latter part of next week at which time some frost and freeze conditions may evolve.

[charliep]

Always fun to try to get a marketing conversation going and try to turn information into decisions. Just curious on the risk reward scenario for a potential frost and what a manager does with this information.

[bucket]

charliep

I only mention it because they are well ahead of the 5 year average. You and I both know that it looks great until the snafu comes along. The reward could be great if its not in the ground, greater if its not out of the ground, but could be a disaster if its two inches high.

Since they are so far advanced in seeding, I suspect the USDA is counting on an early harvest but the cooler weather may slow that down.

[charliep]

Will be interesting. Trend yields on US corn are just over 160 bu/acre but the last few years have been 150 bu/acre plus/minus. You scatter 10 bu/acre over 90 million acres and you have an impact of 22.5 million tonnes, 3 times the size of the last two years western Canadian barley production.