Canola Markets

[tstep]

I quess we have seen the top and downward trend has started..

[SASKFARMER3]

It shouldn't but this week really sucked. Liquidated
a small contact but will wait till July now.

[Ronski]

Is the crop getting bigger or smaller?
Haven't seen anybody in the fireld in
central alberta yet.

[grassfarmer]

Ronski, seeding is going on west of Rimbey. Earlier
start than usual in this part of the world. Saw a few
drills going yesterday on a run down to Calgary.

[SASKFARMER3]

Crop is not getting bigger!

[SASKFARMER3]

When te seed is in the bags!

[bucket]

SF3

I have never understand how a crop can get bigger when its not planted. How does it get bigger when you delay seeding by a week and push flowering into july heat?

Sure its happened the last two years but for analysts to think the last two years was a normal weather pattern has to make someone shake their heads.

[Wheatking]

Since Errol in't chiming in I will. New crop canola broke support today.
If it continues down on Monday I am a seller of new crop. Look for minor
support at 5.65. Just my 2 cents. I know the with the rain this crop
acreage is looking smaller, but for the time being it may be in for a
correction. I could be entirely wrong and the crappy weather hits the
traders in Winnipeg and the bring us higher again.

[cottonpicken]

We got real lucky today.

Dollar up,treasuries up,oil down hard,dow down and
we came up off the lows in corn and beans....whew.

Houston we still have demand.

[errolanderson]

Wheatking . . . you are right. Near-term
uptrend canola support broke today.
Soyoil support broke 2 or 3 days ago.
Palm oil is at 6-week lows.

Also, major crack in crude oil today is
a clear deflationary warning shot for
commodity markets. There are no interest
rate hikes ahead. And Big Ben clearly
realizes the risk of a QE3. Italy is the
only European country now willing to
take their economic poison pill through
tough austerity and yes, tax hikes. IMO
this is the start of credit deleveraging
globally and it will affect our canola
market.

Cash market trend for canola (IMO) is
now down.

Errol

[crusher]

Sooner or later the pessimists will be right.

[errolanderson]

Public optimism and confidence for
global financial markets will eventually
return in-vengence. (Money currently
parked on-the-sidelines will be again
reinvested in higher risk investments)

But IMO, these markets have to ween
themselves off central bank balance
sheets first.

Crusher . . . you can call me a
pessimist or a realistic or whatever
name you want, but when that day comes,
I will turn an optimist.

Errol

[wd9]

That's very optimistic of you EA!

[Kodiak]

Errol, you are absolutely right. This house of cards is going to crash--sometime. Some markets will be hurt worse than others. And the bullish optimists will be right too --sometime.

The big question, and I mean BIG question, is timing. There is a huge difference between 3 days, 3 weeks, and 3 months. If anyone can predict "when" with certainty, that would be invaluable information. Predicting and crash or a rally is not really that informative. We are all aware, some with the scars to prove it, of the cycles of markets. They fall from highs and rally from lows.

When???????????????????? Answer that, and I won't make a mistake selling too soon or too late.

[errolanderson]

Kodiak . . . no one can answer that
question of timing.

But tomorrow may be rough. Global markets
are not impressed with outcome of
elections in France and Greece this
weekend.