Stocks report Will 4.7 leave us with any Canola Come July 30th!

[SASKFARMER3]

Total stocks of principal field crops at
March 31
2010 2011 2012 2010 to
2011 2011 to 2012
thousands of tonnes % change
Total wheat 17 106 15 803 14 479
-7.6 -8.4
Wheat excluding durum 12 343 12 747
11 477 3.3 -10.0
Durum wheat 4 763 3 056 3 002
-35.8 -1.8
Corn for grain 5 856 5 718 6 179
-2.4 8.1
Canola 6 462 6 157 4 273 -4.7
-30.6
Barley 5 096 3 540 3 140 -30.5
-11.3
Soybeans 1 490 1 574 1 873
5.6 19.0
Oats 2 066 1 694 1 323 -18.0
-21.9
Lentils 405 1 140 1 184
181.5 3.9
Dry field peas 2 055 1 670 798
-18.7 -52.2
Flaxseed 596 369 262
-38.1 -29.0
Mustard seed 165 185 152
12.1 -17.8
Rye 196 132 54 -32.7
-59.1
Canary seed 164 125 44
-23.8 -64.8
Chickpeas 65 65 43
0.0 -33.8
Sunflower seed 72 58 14
-19.4 -75.9

[SASKFARMER3]

Sorry it is 4.2 on March 31th.
Hm I said the bins were empty.
All crushing plant Employees have a great
summer off! You Deserve it.
Oh yea their wont be 21 plus million acres
of Canola Sorry boys that wont happen.

[SASKFARMER3]

Here is another note if weather changes
today and looks good for a week, we wont
be in field to spray till Wed. Drills will
hit lighter fields Thursday to Saturday.
Oh it ends next monday. Yea a great week
for seeding. OH well at least were ready
to go. Good luck to all and be safe.

[charliep]

The full report for those that want to look at.

[URL="http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/22-002-x/22-002-x2012003-eng.pdf"]March 31 Stocks[/URL]

[bucket]

And for the enduser it a good time to buy at bargain prices.

Farmers are losing time on seeding and the bins are empty.

[charliep]

Just curious why the fixation on acreage. The range of trade estimates is likely in the 20 to 21 million acre range. What is more important to me is the consumption/customer needs side. A 15 million tonne crop is something I would call neutral based on how I see domestic crush and exports in 2012/13. 20 million acres at an average of 33 bu/acre. Push toward 14 million tonnes production and you might (not guaranteed) see some premium on Canadian canola prices relative to other oilseeds. Push toward 16 million tonnes and canola will have to be competitively priced relative to other oilseeds to attract more export sales.

My carreer was launched in the late 1970's/early 1980's. Different now in terms of markets/underlying factors but a lot of the same attitude. Will be interesting going ahead.

[charliep]

Two charts that would temper my bullishness.

[URL="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=ZLZ12"]CBT Dec Bean Oil[/URL]

<a href="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=CLZ12">Dec Crude Oil</a>

[charliep]

For what it is worth, western Canadian farmers delivered an extra 1.1 mln tonnes of canola into the elevator system from April 1 (week 35) to April 28 (week 39) based on CGC data. Assuming the March 31 on farm inventory of 3 MMT is right, that leaves 1.9 MMT to be delivered (assuming farmers sweep their bins clean) over the next 3 months.

Elevator inventory is down from 1.3 MMT (week 35) to 1.1 MMT. Exports and domestic crush over the same period - 1.2 MMT. The pace of disappearance has to slow.

[crusher]

I've still got half my crop on the farm. Its less than 1.3 million tonnes.