Canola down alot

[farming101]

Did anyone notice that in the last month the profit in 1000 acres of canola went down $45000. Gives one a nice feeling as your throwing around those $500 bags of seed!

[farming101]

Errol posted back on May 2 new crop 570 puts were going for $16.50/tonne. Would have cost $13,200 plus commission to lock in 800 tonnes at 553.50.
Not taking basis changes into consideration a guy might be around 30 grand to the good on that insurance purchase

[SASKFARMER3]

I was laughed at a week ago when I said
the shit was hitting the fan. People
laughed and laughed.

[farming101]

Sorry for the poor math in the above comments. A drop of 45000 dollars on a thousand acres is based on one tonne per acre. So, you would have to buy puts on 1000 tonnes which would have cost 16,500 plus commission; still a good money maker.

Last Friday those same 570 puts for November were going for 28/tonne

[BreadWinner]

Just profit taking by the funds, they will want back in sometime. The world still will be short of food and it is in your fields.

[errolanderson]

Nov $570 puts closed at $$28. Today, they
will trade likely $32/MT or higher as
overnight canola trade down hard.

Next stop on Nov $540/MT?

Errol

[commonsense]

It's only less profitable if you were foolish enough not to hedge something at those profitable levels. Puts have continuesd to trade at vol's around 15% that provided cheap insurance. As for the funds their liquidation is only begining, one has to remember they drove the price 40 bucks higher than any end user was willing to pay for export canola as well and provided lots of selling opportunity. There is also a record fund long in beans and US futures are overvalued to the Dalian which is where all the demand is coming from. Sell the rallies as the trend has changed.

[errolanderson]

Major fallout in global veg oil prices
right now. Malaysian palm oil tumbled
nearly 4% overnight. Slowdown in China
tied to depression in Europe now rippling
across the world.

[dogdung]

to change the subjecet how about sk cell service
the only way it works by the borber is use the
U.Stowers

[crusher]

Dealer is going to be more disappointed than
me. 25 year old versatile and 15 year old
fkexicoil will have to go fer a few more years.
Hope the price of duct tape and hydraulic don't.
Inflate too much.

[MarshallDillon]

Now that is funny!

[furrowtickler]

Hehe, i hear ya crusher same here. But if everything crashed - no payments and we can feed the family, some will be in a shat storm, lol

[hobbyfrmr]

Furrow and crusher, not always the case.
Common sense had good insight in an above
post. There has been an excellent opportunity all
winter to sell canola for black ink. Some farmers
did sell for profit, cash flow and make , payments
on all the top notch new, efficient equipment. That
is how it should work and I do not begrudge them.
I too drive antique tractors and use primitive
tillage tools by choice, and I get a chuckle out of
the folks who held out too long. They obviously ,
and literally do not "need" the money. If they
needed the money to make payments, or pay
salaries or an income tax invoice, they would sell
for,profit and not sit around talking about what
they "could" get. Going forward those types will
will now talk about what they "should" have sold
for. And their inventory will sit in storage.

[crusher]

And the trick is to keep the old stuff top notch and sell inventory at decent levels. Some days I feel like a genius, some days I feel like Casey at the bat. Momma was still able to make a road trip to the new mall in Calgary last weekend and get a new pair of shoes (or 2).

[makar]

My versatile is 38 years old. Banker phoned me today and told me i am finacealy secure. Perhaps i may make to.