Canola down alot

[TOM4CWB]

Selling Fall Canola at $12.25 and Specialty at 13.40/bu is not exactly anything to complain about! Basis is even decent now!

Cheers!

Plant those seeds!!!

[hedgehog]

hey, why has spring wheat shot up today?

[errolanderson]

hedgehog . . there was a 3% drop in U.S.
winter wheat crop ratings to 60% good-to-
excellent week over week. Also, there are
some dryness concerns creeping into the
market which contributed support to corn.

Errol

[commonsense]

MPLS wheat has been in a free fall since early April as well. Short covering and profit taking would account for a lot of it. There is a steep trend line that comes in the MPLS Dec at 7.60. Closes above that could trigger additional fund coverage. Entirely likely that it is more if you drop something from high enough it's likely to bounce at some point.

[crusher]

Winnipeg at 2C tonight and then 30-32 Friday/Saturday. Maybe those extremes will spook the market so I can put on a few more sales.
Tom, You must have some pretty cheap rents in central Alberta to make a living at $12 canola.

[TOM4CWB]

Crusher,

Even with one third crop share... average yeilds... this works!

[furrowtickler]

B/S unless 1/3 of expenses are paid as well

[ALBERTAFARMER4]

I agree, that does not work with rented land.

[crusher]

You guys gotta remember Tom knows how to grow grain.
Just barley left for us. Tom how are you guys getting along? Killam conditions like S.P.? What are you seeding with these days?

[ASRG]

I've done the one third deal with my present tenant for over 20 years. Yes I pay 1/3 of fertilizer and spray. And I provide bin space.
He farms it like he owns it and he makes all the decisions.
We both think it works out pretty well...probably close to cash rent?

[crusher]

ASRG,

You're probably doing alright, better than cash rent the last few years, if you've got some yield and average marketer.

[errolanderson]

Guys note . . . when commodity prices
drop this sharply, there is typically a
retracement bounce. For example, should
Nov canola plunge toward $540/MT (next
key support IMO) canola would have
dropped about $40 - $45/MT.

The retracement bounce can be between
50% to 66% of the drop. In other words,
a $20 to $25/MT rebound is possible,
before the market runs out-of-fuel again
(if there is no fresh bullish news
entering the market).

There is no guarantee of a retracement,
but should it happen, this will
hopefully allow growers another
opportunity to reassess their canola
pricing needs heading into fall on a
market recovery.

Errol

[furrowtickler]

Canola up a bit...