Wheat bottom?

[malleefarmer]

Wheat appears still to be in down trend despite this weeks rally or is there a substansial change going on?

Or is it just a dead cat bounce?

Problems with US crops real or percieved? Seems as a outside observer the usa crop wether it be corn beans or wheat lives and dies about 4 times a year and they still produce massive crops.

Meanwhile in downtown australia farmers are seeding mostly some have stopped and think WA is super dry everyone is a tad worried but its only may early days in our cropping calendar

[errolanderson]

Funds have been heavily short wheat and
big-time long soybeans. These funds are
now exiting positions creating in-part
the rebound in wheat. Capital
constraints may be encouraging this
exodus.

Dryness in Kansas and the Ukraine
showing up and may become a larger
factor ahead.

But the big issue in my mind is the
stock market. If equities fall further,
commodities don't have much hope of a
bull market revival.

Tomorrow . . . U.S. equities have to
show some hop or funds long commodities
may get another bad case of the heepie
jeepies and bail more positions.

We've gone from the greed . . . to the
hope . . .to the fear stage of markets.
We don't want to see the final panic
stage develop.

Errol

[BreadWinner]

Errol we've seen this happen many times, heathy
trade has corrections and that is all it is!! Food is
the new money and everyone is going to want a
share, hang on its going to be a bumpy ride,I think
there is a steep uphill climb ahead. Many said we
wouldn't see $12 canola before Xmas look where
it went. I think $20 isn't out of the question for next
January.

[crusher]

Home runs are tough to hit on a consistent
basis. I like to get on base and once a get a safe
lead then I bring out the big bat. Ill be happy
with new crop in the teens for a bunch of
tonnes.

[BreadWinner]

Hey Errol looks like you are just another grain
market know it all. Hope you arnt taking a position
in the markets on your own advice. Sure hope
you don't charge anyone for your knowledge.

[dave4441]

Not being told what you want to hear
Breadwinner?

[dave4441]

Not being told what you want to hear
Breadwinner?

[BreadWinner]

I used to go to all the spring market seminars
where these so called experts fed the crowd the
biggest load of bull&&@! Turns out none of them
were even close to getting it right. This has taught
me to use my own instincts, if I'm wrong I can only
blame myself.

World keeps getting more crowded and we arnt
growing any more crop. Any hiccup in the chain
and groan is better than gold.

[BreadWinner]

I used to go to all the spring market seminars
where these so called experts fed the crowd the
biggest load of bull&&@! Turns out none of them
were even close to getting it right. This has taught
me to use my own instincts, if I'm wrong I can only
blame myself.

World keeps getting more crowded and we arnt
growing any more crop. Any hiccup in the chain
and groan is better than gold.

[crusher]

I finally got some CPS sold for new crop. Gotta reward the market after a rally like this.

[BreadWinner]

What kind of prices are you getting for new crop
CPS?

[errolanderson]

Breadwinner . . . since my response to
mallefarmer was such a wrong one, what
are other opinions out there?

All the best in your quest for a raging
bull canola market canola in the new
crop year . . .

Errol

PS: It may be best to stay away from
spring marketing seminars.