Wheat bottom?

[malleefarmer]

Wheat appears still to be in down trend despite this weeks rally or is there a substansial change going on?

Or is it just a dead cat bounce?

Problems with US crops real or percieved? Seems as a outside observer the usa crop wether it be corn beans or wheat lives and dies about 4 times a year and they still produce massive crops.

Meanwhile in downtown australia farmers are seeding mostly some have stopped and think WA is super dry everyone is a tad worried but its only may early days in our cropping calendar

[errolanderson]

Funds have been heavily short wheat and
big-time long soybeans. These funds are
now exiting positions creating in-part
the rebound in wheat. Capital
constraints may be encouraging this
exodus.

Dryness in Kansas and the Ukraine
showing up and may become a larger
factor ahead.

But the big issue in my mind is the
stock market. If equities fall further,
commodities don't have much hope of a
bull market revival.

Tomorrow . . . U.S. equities have to
show some hop or funds long commodities
may get another bad case of the heepie
jeepies and bail more positions.

We've gone from the greed . . . to the
hope . . .to the fear stage of markets.
We don't want to see the final panic
stage develop.

Errol

[BreadWinner]

Errol we've seen this happen many times, heathy
trade has corrections and that is all it is!! Food is
the new money and everyone is going to want a
share, hang on its going to be a bumpy ride,I think
there is a steep uphill climb ahead. Many said we
wouldn't see $12 canola before Xmas look where
it went. I think $20 isn't out of the question for next
January.

[crusher]

Home runs are tough to hit on a consistent
basis. I like to get on base and once a get a safe
lead then I bring out the big bat. Ill be happy
with new crop in the teens for a bunch of
tonnes.

[BreadWinner]

Hey Errol looks like you are just another grain
market know it all. Hope you arnt taking a position
in the markets on your own advice. Sure hope
you don't charge anyone for your knowledge.

[dave4441]

Not being told what you want to hear
Breadwinner?

[dave4441]

Not being told what you want to hear
Breadwinner?

[BreadWinner]

I used to go to all the spring market seminars
where these so called experts fed the crowd the
biggest load of bull&&@! Turns out none of them
were even close to getting it right. This has taught
me to use my own instincts, if I'm wrong I can only
blame myself.

World keeps getting more crowded and we arnt
growing any more crop. Any hiccup in the chain
and groan is better than gold.

[BreadWinner]

I used to go to all the spring market seminars
where these so called experts fed the crowd the
biggest load of bull&&@! Turns out none of them
were even close to getting it right. This has taught
me to use my own instincts, if I'm wrong I can only
blame myself.

World keeps getting more crowded and we arnt
growing any more crop. Any hiccup in the chain
and groan is better than gold.

[crusher]

I finally got some CPS sold for new crop. Gotta reward the market after a rally like this.

[BreadWinner]

What kind of prices are you getting for new crop
CPS?

[errolanderson]

Breadwinner . . . since my response to
mallefarmer was such a wrong one, what
are other opinions out there?

All the best in your quest for a raging
bull canola market canola in the new
crop year . . .

Errol

PS: It may be best to stay away from
spring marketing seminars.

[BreadWinner]

I'll grow the crop Then I'll worry about sellin it,
personally I don't think there is any need to panic.
The more we resist panic selling the higher the
prices will go. If you need to sell thats your
decision, all the options I've bought have expired
worthless , its just another way to spend more
money.

[ianben]

World keeps getting more crowded and we arnt
growing any more crop. Any hiccup in the chain
and groan is better than gold.

The world has to get crowded with people who rich
enough to buy food for grain to be better than gold.

I dont see that happening. Euro crisis program on BBC
last night, 48% under 24s in Spain unemployed more
empty house than US, Greece, Portugal, Italy, Ireland
all unable to operate on same level as Germany.
Germany produces goods for these countries which
cant afford so when they default Germany is poorer
too.
They can only juggle the balls so long, when one
drops I think we will all be poorer.

Perhaps Facebook shares are the best safe haven?

[cottonpicken]

Better than gold?

Only in that the ratio is so out of wack.

The majority of the worlds populous buys it for when
they have to purchase wheat years down the road.

Wheat is cheap cheap cheap by any yardstick.