Light Snow Thursday! May as well bring out the snow blower!!!!!!!!

[furrowtickler]

If the growing point is green and there is very little moisutre it will come back, seen it, been there before. Also a wet crop will not freeze nearly as much as a dry one. Time will tell.
Regardless lets hope that it straightens out and those not done get done.

[SASKFARMER3]

I agree. Lots to go in our area. But the total
seeded will be way down.

[bucket]

If all this rain comes we will be at close to 6inches since May 1. That's more than we usually get in a growing season. It also shuts down seeding until June. But the temperatures are not co-operating with what's seeded either. Those plants need some heat.

Thinking of using the heavy harrow to put out some canola if the soil dries enough to go on and top dressing it later. Only because there is quite a bit of canola available, the ground is black where I want to put it and it gets something done while the drills wait.

[mbratrud]

SF3 I have a neighbor you need to meet. You guys are so much alike you might be long lost brothers. We might have to arrange that sometime. Maybe Farm Show in Regina or something. You guys even look alike... LOL

[SASKFARMER3]

Maybe Ill be their all week. HA HA.

[commonsense]

When you are looking at new crop acres you need to look at the actual market, not what you would like acres to be at so the price goes the direction you want it to. To start with look at Stat's Can revisions in the last 4 years as they have surveyed the farmer, and come up with under estimated production consistently year over year. It's a simple concept the producer has an ability to affect the market so they understate the supply and the market reacts somewhat to those numbers. The problem is that the numbers now are so skewed the analysts tend to completely ignore them.

For example in Sep 08 they increased -08 production 778k and Mar 31 stocks 869k.

Sep 09: increased '08 production another 72k and Mar 31 stocks 300k.

Sep 10: increased stocks 900k.

Sep 11: increased production 907k and stocks 472k.

The point being the numbers on acres/production/stocks coming from the producer are always understated which is exactly what you are trying to do by suggesting there will be 18 million acres seeded this year.

Now there is some weather concerns that may be valid but I don't think the industry is writing the crop off on May 23rd just yet. Western Canada is 3/4 seeded and ahead of the average progress. I would guess that companies like, Dow, Bayer, Monsanto, Pioneer, Viterra, and Cargill have a far better idea of what the actual acres will be given normal planting conditions are than any one producer does. They have the seed sales, and infastructure to gather that data. Even an idependant like Kostal is using 20.872 as the seeded acres number currently. To suggest that the commercials are inflating the acres by 3 to 4 million in an effort to reduce price is frankly absurd, especially when history has proven consistently that the opposite is actually the case and production tends to be understated.

Not to suggest the market can't go up even with 21 million acres but if you are making your selling decisons on the fact you think at this point in time we will see a 17-18 million acre crop you are marketting it with your head somewhere lower than all that canola you apparently didn't put in the ground.

[dave4441]

Excellent comments. AS growers we always want to beleive markets are going our way and we find the reasons why it is trending our direction and why it won't go against us. And then blame some company when the market pukes. SF3, with all due respect, you do the same thing year after year after year. There is always a frost, always too wet, too much heat. It really becomes a broken record.

I think alot of the Stat Can numbers are out to lunch. Canaryseed is again going to ship to negative carryover. Market has at least 50000 MT of product available to it that is not on the Stat Can S D. Why? BEcause growers continue to underrepport acres. Who does this really benifit? Would better marketing decisions be carried out this year if the numbers are correct? People want to market canary late in year because it will run out only to find we have a excess supply as we head into harvest. I realize few care about canaryseed just it is such a small crop that it is easier to see the affect of Stat Can numbers.

DAve

[SASKFARMER3]

Davy boy I have been right over the years more
than wrong on the canola markets. Their is no
way 21 million acres will get seeded.
But guys like you keep believing.
Also last two years all I heard was how big the
newby canola growers were getting for yields.
Well we will be almost empty with canola by July.
So I guess some of you were not so mighty.
Only half inch here yea that's a great day. Their is
way to much seed in dealers sheds for the canola
number to be their.
It's all bs hype. I have my marketing plan in place
and it looks just fine!

[wd9]

SF3, world veg oil is not driven by the
2% of supply that Canada brings to
table. We are less than a blip.

No one really cares how much we seed and
the talk of high acres is only a temp
tool to lower the price in the spring.
Real world demand has kept up the canola
price even if we were seeding 40 million
acres.

Whether there is 10, 15 or 25 million
acres seeded by june 1, our price is
still dictated by the world oil complex.

One acre in Malaysia produces 10 tonnes
of oil for example, every year. We make
half a tonne of oil, manitoba even less,
the peace a little more. Just a blip.

[commonsense]

Supply will be tight by July 31, not near as tight as Stats Can stocks would suggest but it has everything to do with increased exports and increased crush not lower yields from canola growers. The market has risen to these levels on old crop demand pull not whatever random yield number on a producer survey.

I realize based on the 3 or 4 supply sheds out of the thousands in western Canada you have visited having seed available clearly indicates a 4 million acre swing from the numbers the guys selling the seed everywhere are indicating. All they are using is actual sales data and not the tested and true method of looking in a few sheds.

It would also be unreasonable to think that a business that sold canola seed would have additional seed available for walk up customers when canola is the best return per acre of any of the majors grown in western Canada. Its hard to increase sales with no inventory, just ask fertilizer guys right now.