Light Snow Thursday! May as well bring out the snow blower!!!!!!!!

[commonsense]

When you are looking at new crop acres you need to look at the actual market, not what you would like acres to be at so the price goes the direction you want it to. To start with look at Stat's Can revisions in the last 4 years as they have surveyed the farmer, and come up with under estimated production consistently year over year. It's a simple concept the producer has an ability to affect the market so they understate the supply and the market reacts somewhat to those numbers. The problem is that the numbers now are so skewed the analysts tend to completely ignore them.

For example in Sep 08 they increased -08 production 778k and Mar 31 stocks 869k.

Sep 09: increased '08 production another 72k and Mar 31 stocks 300k.

Sep 10: increased stocks 900k.

Sep 11: increased production 907k and stocks 472k.

The point being the numbers on acres/production/stocks coming from the producer are always understated which is exactly what you are trying to do by suggesting there will be 18 million acres seeded this year.

Now there is some weather concerns that may be valid but I don't think the industry is writing the crop off on May 23rd just yet. Western Canada is 3/4 seeded and ahead of the average progress. I would guess that companies like, Dow, Bayer, Monsanto, Pioneer, Viterra, and Cargill have a far better idea of what the actual acres will be given normal planting conditions are than any one producer does. They have the seed sales, and infastructure to gather that data. Even an idependant like Kostal is using 20.872 as the seeded acres number currently. To suggest that the commercials are inflating the acres by 3 to 4 million in an effort to reduce price is frankly absurd, especially when history has proven consistently that the opposite is actually the case and production tends to be understated.

Not to suggest the market can't go up even with 21 million acres but if you are making your selling decisons on the fact you think at this point in time we will see a 17-18 million acre crop you are marketting it with your head somewhere lower than all that canola you apparently didn't put in the ground.

[dave4441]

Excellent comments. AS growers we always want to beleive markets are going our way and we find the reasons why it is trending our direction and why it won't go against us. And then blame some company when the market pukes. SF3, with all due respect, you do the same thing year after year after year. There is always a frost, always too wet, too much heat. It really becomes a broken record.

I think alot of the Stat Can numbers are out to lunch. Canaryseed is again going to ship to negative carryover. Market has at least 50000 MT of product available to it that is not on the Stat Can S D. Why? BEcause growers continue to underrepport acres. Who does this really benifit? Would better marketing decisions be carried out this year if the numbers are correct? People want to market canary late in year because it will run out only to find we have a excess supply as we head into harvest. I realize few care about canaryseed just it is such a small crop that it is easier to see the affect of Stat Can numbers.

DAve

[SASKFARMER3]

Davy boy I have been right over the years more
than wrong on the canola markets. Their is no
way 21 million acres will get seeded.
But guys like you keep believing.
Also last two years all I heard was how big the
newby canola growers were getting for yields.
Well we will be almost empty with canola by July.
So I guess some of you were not so mighty.
Only half inch here yea that's a great day. Their is
way to much seed in dealers sheds for the canola
number to be their.
It's all bs hype. I have my marketing plan in place
and it looks just fine!

[wd9]

SF3, world veg oil is not driven by the
2% of supply that Canada brings to
table. We are less than a blip.

No one really cares how much we seed and
the talk of high acres is only a temp
tool to lower the price in the spring.
Real world demand has kept up the canola
price even if we were seeding 40 million
acres.

Whether there is 10, 15 or 25 million
acres seeded by june 1, our price is
still dictated by the world oil complex.

One acre in Malaysia produces 10 tonnes
of oil for example, every year. We make
half a tonne of oil, manitoba even less,
the peace a little more. Just a blip.

[commonsense]

Supply will be tight by July 31, not near as tight as Stats Can stocks would suggest but it has everything to do with increased exports and increased crush not lower yields from canola growers. The market has risen to these levels on old crop demand pull not whatever random yield number on a producer survey.

I realize based on the 3 or 4 supply sheds out of the thousands in western Canada you have visited having seed available clearly indicates a 4 million acre swing from the numbers the guys selling the seed everywhere are indicating. All they are using is actual sales data and not the tested and true method of looking in a few sheds.

It would also be unreasonable to think that a business that sold canola seed would have additional seed available for walk up customers when canola is the best return per acre of any of the majors grown in western Canada. Its hard to increase sales with no inventory, just ask fertilizer guys right now.

[dave4441]

I only stated you are a broken record who only sees the bullish aspects of any market.

[groundspeed]

If it dont quit raining in east central sask soon it all over for this year. One third complete here. Really tired of getting one crop every 3 years. Thank god for vodka.

[freewheat]

groundspeed, why didn't you just get out there and seed?

Oh man, it is getting real old. good prices and no grain sucks. Good luck for the rest of the season. how much rain did you get so far?

[bucket]

Statscan borrows from the next crop to make numbers work. If they are not short canola, why was it that a producer could haul off the combine for 12 bucks or higher and not wait to deliver. It works if everything is early, noboby notices the scam they are playing. I think it caught them a bit last year and maybe more so this year considering the delays in seeding, and that alot of bins got emptied at 14 - 14.50 a few weeks back.

They can't go back to those bins for more. Also, one comment SF3 made about selling 3 year old heated canola for more than canola was worth 3 years ago indicates they want everything because the industry has misread the actual numbers.

As far as the chemical companies knowing, I question that. They know what they have sold to the retail on the pre buys but they have no idea what is coming back from the retail to be repackaged for next year.

Farmers know what they have seeded and they also know how much has drowned out because of water puddling for the next week. And that won't be reseeded.

Its definitely a numbers game, and the official data keepers won't know for 3 more months what they are.

And statscan might not know for another year, which calls into question how accurate is their data. How exactly do you find close to a million tonnes of canola in March if your data is supposed to be correct????

With all the repoorting agencies both private and public from grain companies, retailers, chemical companies, statscan, and crop insurance - no one knows until the following march what the numbers are. It a two dollar calculator to figure it out. There is no calculus or algorithms involved, just simple addition required to add up production.

[groundspeed]

Seeded every day we could long hours. Started on the 15th,too wet before that. It rained 1 inch so far and its still coming down. Subsoil moisture right to the top, water laying in the field after first half inch.

[charliep]

Off the topic of weather but a note you can actually monitor canola deliveries and pace of disappearance. All canola eventually is crushed domestically or sold into the export market. This is different than wheat or barley where a large amount is used on farm/never enters the commercial elevator system.

CGC numbers from week 41.

[URL="http://www.grainscanada.gc.ca/statistics-statistiques/gsw-shg/2011-12/week-semaine-41/gsw-shg-01-eng.htm"]Week 41[/URL]

total supplies 2011/12 crop year - 16 mln tonnes. Deliveries to end week 41 - Just under 13 million tonnes. Assuming deliveries hold current pace, about 2 Million tonnes to come into the commericial system. That will leave about 1 MMT on July 31 between commercial storage and on farm.

Right or wrong. We'll know early August. Because canola only enters the commercial system, basically every kernel is accounted for (yes, I know some seed and dockage). Exports and domestic crush still over 300,000 tonnes per week so something to slow but the market will sort that out.

Fight all you want about acres. The critical number from my perspective is production close to 15 MMT - that is where I would put the volume to satisfy the market.

[charliep]

Something that would cause me concern is CBT soybean oil slipping under 50 cents/lb today in most months and crude oil under $90/barrel briefly. A loonie approaching 97 cents versus the US green back is offsetting some of the pain.

If you believe canola is undervalued, get long futures or calls. Would have a hard core look at the canola chart before I did that.

[URL="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=RSX12"]November futures[/URL]

[Hopperbin]

Lets not forget that China wants our meal for the dairy and fish food markets.

[wilagro]

SASKFARMER3: You are a breath of fresh DEPRESSION...quit with the weather woes or Mother Nature will smite you even more.

Geez...don't you ever wake up in the morning and break into a cheerful song like the birdies do?

[Hopperbin]

Well if were told long enough and often enough that 21 million is not reality then we will soon believe it and will be the new reality.