Light Snow Thursday! May as well bring out the snow blower!!!!!!!!

[dave4441]

I only stated you are a broken record who only sees the bullish aspects of any market.

[groundspeed]

If it dont quit raining in east central sask soon it all over for this year. One third complete here. Really tired of getting one crop every 3 years. Thank god for vodka.

[freewheat]

groundspeed, why didn't you just get out there and seed?

Oh man, it is getting real old. good prices and no grain sucks. Good luck for the rest of the season. how much rain did you get so far?

[bucket]

Statscan borrows from the next crop to make numbers work. If they are not short canola, why was it that a producer could haul off the combine for 12 bucks or higher and not wait to deliver. It works if everything is early, noboby notices the scam they are playing. I think it caught them a bit last year and maybe more so this year considering the delays in seeding, and that alot of bins got emptied at 14 - 14.50 a few weeks back.

They can't go back to those bins for more. Also, one comment SF3 made about selling 3 year old heated canola for more than canola was worth 3 years ago indicates they want everything because the industry has misread the actual numbers.

As far as the chemical companies knowing, I question that. They know what they have sold to the retail on the pre buys but they have no idea what is coming back from the retail to be repackaged for next year.

Farmers know what they have seeded and they also know how much has drowned out because of water puddling for the next week. And that won't be reseeded.

Its definitely a numbers game, and the official data keepers won't know for 3 more months what they are.

And statscan might not know for another year, which calls into question how accurate is their data. How exactly do you find close to a million tonnes of canola in March if your data is supposed to be correct????

With all the repoorting agencies both private and public from grain companies, retailers, chemical companies, statscan, and crop insurance - no one knows until the following march what the numbers are. It a two dollar calculator to figure it out. There is no calculus or algorithms involved, just simple addition required to add up production.

[groundspeed]

Seeded every day we could long hours. Started on the 15th,too wet before that. It rained 1 inch so far and its still coming down. Subsoil moisture right to the top, water laying in the field after first half inch.

[charliep]

Off the topic of weather but a note you can actually monitor canola deliveries and pace of disappearance. All canola eventually is crushed domestically or sold into the export market. This is different than wheat or barley where a large amount is used on farm/never enters the commercial elevator system.

CGC numbers from week 41.

[URL="http://www.grainscanada.gc.ca/statistics-statistiques/gsw-shg/2011-12/week-semaine-41/gsw-shg-01-eng.htm"]Week 41[/URL]

total supplies 2011/12 crop year - 16 mln tonnes. Deliveries to end week 41 - Just under 13 million tonnes. Assuming deliveries hold current pace, about 2 Million tonnes to come into the commericial system. That will leave about 1 MMT on July 31 between commercial storage and on farm.

Right or wrong. We'll know early August. Because canola only enters the commercial system, basically every kernel is accounted for (yes, I know some seed and dockage). Exports and domestic crush still over 300,000 tonnes per week so something to slow but the market will sort that out.

Fight all you want about acres. The critical number from my perspective is production close to 15 MMT - that is where I would put the volume to satisfy the market.

[charliep]

Something that would cause me concern is CBT soybean oil slipping under 50 cents/lb today in most months and crude oil under $90/barrel briefly. A loonie approaching 97 cents versus the US green back is offsetting some of the pain.

If you believe canola is undervalued, get long futures or calls. Would have a hard core look at the canola chart before I did that.

[URL="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=RSX12"]November futures[/URL]

[Hopperbin]

Lets not forget that China wants our meal for the dairy and fish food markets.

[wilagro]

SASKFARMER3: You are a breath of fresh DEPRESSION...quit with the weather woes or Mother Nature will smite you even more.

Geez...don't you ever wake up in the morning and break into a cheerful song like the birdies do?

[Hopperbin]

Well if were told long enough and often enough that 21 million is not reality then we will soon believe it and will be the new reality.