Canola

[mcfarms]

You better adjust your topic based on the activity on New Ag talk Charlie, looks like no trades or liquidity for your topic either (Kinda like the ICE wheat and barley contracts)

[errolanderson]

cotton . . . believe we both see the
same end result, just looking through
different port holes on money supply.
one of us will be right. enjoy your
market insight.

crusher . . . this you won't like . . .
Think there may be a 'bear flag'
developing on canola charts right now.
Realize that this is smoke 'n mirrors
technicals, but if canola breaks, this
flag suggests a $1/bu decline. don't
know when, but if the right triggers
come together, it might be a rapid
market reaction (but can certainty be
wrong, as you have seen).

Bernanke's comments are reverberating
across Asia tonite. tomorrow another
interesting day.


Errol

[charliep]

The development of the cash market in the new wheat
market is something I am following very carefully
including which futures grain companies are using as
the reference/hedge tool and basis. From there, we
all are going to have to understand the protein and
grade market. People tell me this will happen quickly
with the first deliveries after harvest this fall.

Most farmers don't care. Ignorance is bliss.

[ajl]

He will print. The choice is between an
inflationary depression or a defationary
depression. Since the 1930 depression
was deflationary and wasn't very nice we
going to try an inflationary one this
time. This is the $1,000,000 cup of
coffee scenario as the end game.

[crusher]

Errol,

When you get bullish, I'm going to 100% sold. lol

Crops look good here, specialty oil over $14/bu, think I'll go to 30% sold from 10%.

[jensend]

so far europe is moving towards a deflationary depression because the germans won't allow another inflationary depression like the one of the 20's. stimulus has been ineffective because economies continue to slow and shrink. in my humble opinion the debt taken on to finance the growth from the 80's to the present was our inflation and we're headed the other way now. all the growth of the last thirty years was debt financed and now things will have to shrink back to reality.

[errolanderson]

jensend . . . in my humble opinion, you
are 100% right.

The dawn of Spanish economic reality
today. Why is the market so surprised?
This was a train wreck seen many miles
ahead.

Talk of economic panic in China. Rate
cuts there are viewed as a sign of more
bad economic news, not an opportunity to
go deeper in debt. China stocks down
hard overnight.

U.S. clearly in the throws of massive
credit deleveraging right now.

Errol

[mcfarms]

They care but when the line companies and the ouside players/funds are using the US exchanges I have to agree with Ed White in the producer this week.
The barley contract is going to struggle mightily as well as the feed volume couldn't keep the old contract alive and I don't think you'll see the malt industry use the contract.

[charliep]

There is a re-newed interest in the cattle industry given continued tight feed grain supplies (story to be told on wheat) and recent events around Newco. Also, the new world will mean export feed barley business will come together a lot more quickly (a panamax or 2 of feed barley sales off Vancouver) can come together quickly in the new world. More volatility and risk. Hopefully we can get a fully traded barley contract for all members of the supply chain.

[TOM4CWB]

errol,

US will not own up to problems till AFTER the election is over... IF then.

EU is worse than the US. Elections don't help... and I don't think if Alberta and Ontario were not smart enough to put in responsible fiscal governance... what hope is there for the rest?

Live for today... why worry about grandchildren... they will have to look out for themselves!

Isn't that the new 'chant'!!!?

[cottonpicken]

What numbers are you guys looking at?

The us fiscal gap is 1.5 trillion,the european situation
has had massive monetary injections,canada can't
even balance its budgets or let rates rise.

Austerity is a joke,walk up to a nurse or cop or
sasktel employee and tell them 40% of their pension
is gone and buy the way we are raising your income
tax burden and we are raising retirement age and
your going to have start paying some medical bills
and working more hours and one third of you are
fired.

Hows all that going to work?

Montreal students went beserck over a minuscule
tuition hike.

There is only solution,print,the people still take a kick
to the head but they have a harder time figuring out
what is going on.

[TOM4CWB]

CP,

If the world is bound and determined to get off on these environmental kicks... like carbon credits and climate change... the only solution is to do what they are doing now. The lack of productivity and profitability proves their eco-strategy is not economically sustainable. The EU is the perfect example, and the US is not far behind. India and China don't participate... because they would colapse as well.

[cottonpicken]

The whole situation is so very large and complex.

Rational conclusions are even suspect because of
such hugely flawed data.

Governments cannot keep promises they made.

The banks are over levered.

The debt cannot be paid back.

The top guys i've been following for the past decade
that seen all this coming all seem to be sensing that
everything is coming to a head right here and now.

For what its worth.

[errolanderson]

Tom . . . believe the U.S. fiscal cliff
will hit before the U.S. election and no
amount of political manipulation can stop
it this time.

The U.S. can no longer sweep this under
the carpet politically. What's directly
ahead will be extremely difficult for the
American president to contain.

[Burbert]

Yeah things are gonna get better and
better cousin the gobermont boys is
preachin agin, free open market,
marketeering, making money when the prices
are goin down. No end ta suckcess in
Comedian framing, now that the wheatie
bored has been stolen from Comedian
framers............