Are highest prices behind us?

[charliep]

There are at least a couple of us here that
witnessed/survived the early 1980's and this
experience has had a major impact on how we have
run our financial lives/view risk. As an example, all
my mortgages have been fixed rate - likely cost me
an extra percent on interest or more but helped my
sleep factor at night (my risk guage). A very personal
thing how everyone looks at the future and how they
make decisions.

[checking]

If the future is as bleak as being stated, insurance certainly is not going to protect anyone.

What makes anyone believe that reliance on any paper contract has any protective value in a meltdown?

Apparently, many of you are buyers of such documents which would indicate to me that you don't believe what you are preaching.

[charliep]

Depends on point of view.

Is $10 to $12/bu canola a bleak future?

Is $5 to $7/bu wheat (you put in the grade and
protein) a bleak future?

$3.50 to $4/bu feed barley ($5/bu malt) a bleak
future? $7 ish/bu peas?

Everything depends on perspective. What is likely
most important is your breakevens based on the
above. Again a very personal thing.

On the future, any business with a solid balance is a
good situation to weather an economic storm.

[bucket]

It depends on yield this year. 10 bushel crops due to drowning can look pretty bleak.

[cottonpicken]

Forward selling in a bull market is basically being
short/wrong.

NIA DYODD

[ASRG]

I hear you on the "risk thing" Charlie! Wasn't much fun renewing those 22% mortgages! Or for that matter trying to pay off those $1400 cows when they became $250 cows over night in 2003!
Makes us old guys kind of gun shy!

[ianben]

I agree with Charlie, our personel history does alter
our view on risk but does not necessarily make the
decisions we make right or better.

My grandfather farmed through the thirties would
only buy what he could pay for, and taught me a lot
about real values, a very wise man.

My father and I have been a little more adventurous
but up till 2008 way too cautious. Inflation has made
any land we didnt buy cheap £200/acre in the 50s
£400 in the 60s £1000 in the 70s £6000 today.

So which history are we talking here ?

Post 1950 or Post 1929?

My worry is more recent.

The Egyptian Lybian and Tunisian uprisings show
what an unhappy and disolusioned population can do
with a mobile phone and the internet.
We had the London riots last year, law and order
nearly lost control.

I dont see todays young adults excepting the future if
it gets really tough without a fight against the
establishment.

I do think as always hindsight will be the only way to
manage this risk but till then we will all use our own
preferred history.

[rockpile]

There is a saying among commodity buyers (the retail
guys) and it goes like this: "The best cure for high
prices is high prices".

[oneoff]

And bulls can get fat and bears can get fat.

[burnt]

And another - They feed the bulls and the bears but they always slaughter the hogs.